Padres vs. Mariners Odds
| Padres Odds | -104 |
| Mariners Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (+100 / -122) |
| Time | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
This interleague series between the Padres and the Mariners could not come at a more exciting time. Both clubs will enter tonight's matchup holding a Wild Card spot. We'll also get a playoff-caliber pitching matchup as Logan Gilbert will be taking the ball for Seattle.
Gilbert has been rock solid all season long. He enters with a 12-5 record while holding a 3.23 ERA. The 25-year-old right-hander has shown poise and presence beyond his years, but can he go toe to toe with San Diego's ace?
Speaking of San Diego's ace, Yu Darvish will be making his 27th start of the season. He has really embodied his role this season as he's been a workhorse. That type of mentality and effort may be needed once again tonight as the back end of San Diego's bullpen has many questions surrounding it. So, if that is the case, what's the best way to bet this matchup? Let's dive in to find out.
Padres' Gilbert Should Provide Quality Start
The Padres may have a two-game lead on Milwaukee in the National League Wild Card race, but they have not done much offensively to help solidify their spot of late.
Over the last two weeks, San Diego ranks 28th in team batting average and 24th in wOBA. The Padres' slump is coming at a bad time, and this is a lineup that has been proven to be streaky despite the stars at the top of the order. However, if they are going to turn it around soon, they will need the other six bats that are not Machado, Soto, or Bell to pick it up. Besides those three, only Juriskson Profar has an xwOBA above league average.
This struggling lineup will now go up against a starter in Gilbert, who has gotten back on track after a rough month of August. He has come out firing in September. Through two starts, Gilbert has not allowed a run while only walking one batter and striking out 18 over 12 innings of work.
I get that his underlying metrics, such as his xERA of 4.14 and his FIP of 3.49 point toward him regressing in the near future, but we have already seen his regression come in August, and he appears to have already figured things out.
Given the rough patch that this San Diego lineup is going through, he should give us another quality start this evening.
Mariners' Rely on Julio Rodriguez
On the other side, we have quite the opposite scenario. Seattle's offense has come to life lately. In that same two-week span, the Mariners rank eight in wOBA and seventh in wRC+. Much of that comes from the spark that rookie superstar Julio Rodriguez has provided at the top of the order. When Rodriguez goes, the rest of the lineup seems to follow suit. However, he and the rest of Seattle's lineup will have their hands full tonight.
Darvish has been excellent this season as he enters with a 13-7 record and 3.31 ERA. While his peripheral stats are great, his ability to limit traffic and work deep into ball games has been what's made him one of the best in the game this season.
Darvish has gone less than six innings only once this season; that type of length is unheard of in this day and age. As I mentioned before, he can eat up innings because he does not allow many baserunners. His 0.98 WHIP is a testament to that. Although that WHIP is generated from his walk rate that rankings in the top 10% of baseball.
Darvish is the man to cool down this Seattle lineup just as he's done in the past. He's compiled 98 at-bats against the current Seattle lineup and has dominated it over the course of his career. As a result, batters have hit just .153 with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate.
Padres-Mariners Pick
We have seen this total come crashing down since it opened, and when you analyze the starting pitchers, it makes perfect sense. Gilbert has turned it around of late and gets a slumping Padres lineup in his home ballpark. Then Darvish gets to face a team that he dominated in years past, and there's no sign of that trend not containing tonight.
However, the most significant piece to our angle is the length we should get out of both men. Each could eat up at least two-thirds of this ball game while putting up a lot of zeroes in the process. While we aren't getting the best of the number here, this total still has value at 7.5 run, and I would not play it lower than seven.
Pick: Under 7.5 ( Play to 7)
