Padres vs. Mets NL Wild Card Odds
| Padres Series Price | +164 |
| Mets Series Price | -194 |
Series Schedule
- Game 1: Friday, Oct. 7, 8:07 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 8, 7:37 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 3: Sunday, Oct. 9, 7:37 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
San Diego Padres
- World Series Odds: +3000
- Pennant Odds: +1300
- Regular Season Record: 89-73
- Pythagorean Record: 86-76
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 102 (13th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.87 (13th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.84 (12th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
It’s been a strange ride for this version of the Padres. It’s been a mix of elation and devastation for the fanbase essentially since Manny Machado signed.
San Diego put together a solid collection of talent and fought its way to the NLDS in 2020. The Padres then doubled down, putting together a monstrous roster in 2021 only to implode in the second half and miss the postseason altogether.
In 2022, the Padres…
- Got a MVP-worthy season for Machado.
- Got nothing from Fernando Tatis Jr. due to an injury and then a drug-related suspension.
- Got a career year from replacement shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who finished second on the team in bWAR (4.9).
- Got Cy Young-contending seasons from Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.
- Got a disastrous first half of the season from Blake Snell (5.22 ERA) followed by a dominant second half (2.19 ERA).
- Made the splashiest deadline moves of the century, including dealing for Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader.
- Won nine of their final 16 games when the NL wild-card opponents were weak.
- Finished 5-14 (.263) against the Dodgers, but 82-58 against everyone else (.585).
- Made the postseason in a full 162-game season for the first time since 2006, despite finishing 23 games back in their own division.
Talking about how the Padres got here is like discussing Gone Girl at a book club — there are so many twists and turns. Plus, the story isn’t even over yet.
Offense
The Padres bats begin with Machado, who led the NL in fWAR (7.2) and only Paul Goldschmidt had a higher wRC+ (151). He posted a career-high wOBA and sweet spot rate while posting a 50% hard hit rate.
Manny Machado should be NL MVP.
Same fWAR as Paul Goldschmidt (7.0). Second most valuable hitter on the Padres has been Jake Cronenworth (3.7).
Second most valuable hitter on the Cardinals has been… Paul Goldschmidt (behind Arenado at 7.1).
Padres are nowhere without Manny.
— Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) September 25, 2022
Excluding Soto (more on him in a second), nobody really hit the ball hard. Jorge Alfaro managed a solid barrel rate, but didn’t slug well. Jake Cronenworth’s batted ball stats took a massive hit as he finished below the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The whole offense finished bottom-10 in SLG (.382), ISO (.141) and home runs (151).
Brandon Drury and Bell should help the power deficiency. Soto can slam the ball, but he adds more to the Padres' greatest strength: plate discipline.
The Padres rarely chase. They had the second-lowest swinging strike rate in MLB (10%) and the fifth-highest contact rate (78.1%). They finished with the sixth highest walk rate (9.3%) and the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (21.3%).
Put it all together and the Padres had a slightly-above-average offense this season (102 wRC+). But the deadline additions have the potential to add much-needed power to this disciplined offense and turn San Diego’s lineup deadly.
Rotation
San Diego’s pitching staff kept the Padres afloat during this rollercoaster of a season. The rotation finished sixth in the NL in fWAR, with Musgrove and Darvish carrying the team as the duo posted a combined 3.06 ERA over 369 2/3 innings.
The best story of the year is Snell.
Blake Snell before and after July 1st
Before: 36 IP, 5.60 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 2.00 K/BB
After: 49 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 3.90 K/BB
— David📈 (@DavidCBets) August 24, 2022
Snell started throwing his slider more as the season went on and it led to massive improvements in his fastball (.418 xwOBA allowed in June, .248 xwOBA allowed in September) and a big increase in strikeouts (20.8 K% in June, 35.1 K% in September).
The question marks will come with Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger.
You must hope Manaea’s 5.15 ERA has been fueled by his low 67.1% strand rate and he’ll regress toward his 4.14 xERA and 4.01 xFIP as the postseason progresses. But he posted the lowest ground-ball rate (38.1%) and the highest walk rate (7.5%) of his career.
It feels like Clevinger is still working his way back from injury. His velocity is down about two ticks and his strikeouts are at a career low. The stats aren’t pretty, with an xERA and xFIP both north of 4.65.
Bullpen
The Padres, surprisingly, finished fifth in MLB in reliever fWAR this season. But they dealt their closer Taylor Rogers – who converted 28 of 35 save opportunities in San Diego with a 1.3 fWAR – to Milwaukee for Hader.
Hader turned around and became a complete dud with the Padres. He has a 7.63 ERA in 15 1/3 innings with the Padres.
Luis Garcia has been the best player in the bullpen. He largely received the eighth inning and put together a 3.15 ERA while forcing a 53.7% ground-ball rate in 60 innings.
The good news is both Garcia and Hader are due for regression. Garcia has an xERA of 2.68. Hader has an xFIP of 2.89. If the tides start to turn, this could be one of the better back-end bullpens in the National League.
There’s plenty of depth too, with Steven Wilson, Tim Hill, and Robert Suarez all posting ERAs under 3.00. Nick Martinez and Craig Stammen will be effective as well. –Tanner McGrath
New York Mets
- World Series Odds: +950
- Pennant Odds: +550
- Regular Season Record: 101-61
- Pythagorean Record: 99-63
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 116 (3rd)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.43 (2nd)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.47 (3rd)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
What’s a 100-win ballclub without some drama?
The Mets revamped their offense in free agency and brought in Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha, all of whom have played big roles in the team’s success. They also traded for Chris Bassitt and signed Max Scherzer to a 3-year, $130 million contract to shore up their rotation.
The Mets instantly became contenders and led the National League East race all the way until the end — when they were swept by the surging Atlanta Braves.
The Mets finished 2022 with the third-best record in the NL and their first postseason berth since 2016, but it won’t be an easy task.
Offense
The Mets' offense went silent against Atlanta, but this is still a potent offense that ranks fourth in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA. Jeff McNeil is having a career year, batting .326 and an .829 OPS. Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha have been on-base machines, and those three are surrounded by superstars Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso.
Starling Marte has proven to be a fantastic offseason addition (136 wRC+, .355 wOBA), but he’s sidelined and likely out for the early playoff series. His loss has severely hurt this Mets lineup, particularly in the backend against left-handed pitching.
Eduardo Escobar’s incredible September (.340) shouldn’t be overstated, but he also hit .224 before the All-Star break. Daniel Vogelbach has provided a spark against right-handed pitching, but against lefties, the Mets don’t have an answer at DH because of the injury to Marte.
James McCann and Tomas Nido have provided little-to-no offense and the young bats of Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez have lagged behind against MLB pitching.
Still, there’s no denying the potential of the Mets offense.
Rotation
Don’t be alarmed by the Braves sweep of New York, this starting rotation is legit.
Like in years past, pitching is the strong suit of the Mets. This time it’s in the form of a three-headed monster in Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. All three have a sub-3.50 ERA and a knack for pitching deep into games.
The fourth starter remains to be seen as Taijuan Walker has struggled after a dominant first half of the season — 5.14 ERA since the All-Star break — and Carlos Carrasco has been inconsistent since a dominant July.
Regardless, this is arguably the best rotation in the postseason.
Bullpen
Edwin Diaz and the trumpets have become the talk of the town in New York and the closer has absolutely dominated to the tune of a 1.34 ERA and a 19.4 K/9 rate.
Adam Ottavino has been a perfect complement as well, with a 1.50 ERA since the All-Star break. This duo is up there for the most dominant 1-2 punches in MLB.
Aside from them, however, the Mets' relievers are Jekyll & Hyde. Drew Smith, Seth Lugo and lefty specialist Joely Rodriguez will all be frequently used in higher leverages, and Trevor May should round out the majority of this relief corp.
They do have the third-best xFIP in MLB, but that’s carried heavily on the backs of Diaz and Ottavino. –Charlie DiSturco
