Padres vs. Pirates Odds
| Padres Odds | -175 |
| Pirates Odds | +145 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Padres head in to this very winnable contest at PNC Park in the midst of an excellent run of late, playing to a mark of 13-7 and showing some promise at the plate.
However, a 13-7 record is good for just third place in the powerhouse NL West's standings and as we saw from San Diego last season, things can go downhill in a hurry.
The Padres will send righty Yu Darvish to the mound hoping to keep their win streak rolling. Darvish has been very sharp over his past two outings and holds an ERA of 4.43 with a record of 1-1.
The Pirates will send righty Zach Thompson to the mound, who has struggled mightily so far this season, pitching to a 10.80 ERA and an 0-2 record.
We know Thompson is going to post better marks moving forward, but will he find his positive regression against a red-hot Padres lineup?
San Diego Padres: Darvish Primed for Another Gem
The Padres have been efficient offensively to begin the season, generating 4.55 runs per game with a 109 wRC+ and a .315 wOBA.
However the Padres do appear a likely candidate for some offensive regression. It's XBA of .230 is fifth worst league wide, while it's xSLG is fourth lowest at .388. The Padres have worse splits against right handed pitching as well, with a wRC+ of 100 and a .302 wOBA.
It could be good news that Darvish is slated to take the mound Friday, considering the excellent form he has displayed over his past two outings. Darvish allowed just a single hit throughout six scoreless innings against the high-powered Dodgers last time out and allowed just one earned through six innings against the Braves one game prior.
Darvish has pitched to a 3.71 xERA over his four outings this season and has been very strong in three of those four games. It's also fair to say a four-game sample with three games coming against the Dodgers, Braves and Giants will certainly be a little tough on your numbers.
Darvish will get a much easier matchup Friday, facing a Pirates order which has been very ineffective against right-handed pitching.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Can Thompson Get Back on Track?
Pittsburgh has managed the kind of results at the plate that one might have expected to start the 2022 campaign, with an 18th-ranked OPS and an offense that ranks 22nd in runs scored.
The underlying numbers aren't encouraging either, as the Pirates hold the fifth lowest XSLG at .390, the 7th lowest XWOBA at .311 and sit dead last in barrel %. Against right-handed pitching, Pittsburgh has hit to a .286 wOBA and a wRC+ of 87.
Thompson will take the mound and he has been crushed over his first three outings of the season, pitching to an xERA of 7.05.
His stuff hasn't looked far off from what we saw last season when he managed a 3.65 xERA.
Facing a Padres order which sits second to last in barrel rate, it's possible he could fare much better than we have seen.
Padres-Pirates Pick
The Padres appear quite due for regression at the plate and I believe that it's more likely we see it Friday than one might think. Thompson's numbers look horrific on the surface, but his stuff has appeared fine and I'm not counting on such dreadful stats all season.
Darvish continuing his strong run of form and keeping a very poor Pirates lineup in check seems likely as well. Add that up and we have a good spot to look for another under here.
We have seen batters have an extremely hard time driving the ball this season and that trend has held up at PNC as well.
I see value for this one to go under 7.5, in a spot where I think most will look towards Thompson's shocking ERA and think we have an easy over hit.
Pick: Under 7.5 -120
