The Padres roll out right-hander Matt Waldron, while right-hander Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Rockies this Friday at Coors Field.
Let's take a look at a few elements in this game and cook up a same-game parlay for Padres vs Rockies on Friday, August 16.
Tony Sartori's Padres vs Rockies MLB Parlay Picks, Odds for Friday
- Matt Waldron Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
- Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+125)
- Padres ML (-180)
Parlay Odds: +465 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Matt Waldron Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
8:40 PM ET, MLB.TV
Waldron has been serviceable this season, posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 24 starts. With that said, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming.
The right-hander ranks in the 64th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This expected positive regression is likely to come to fruition against Colorado — a team Waldron is 2-0 against through two career meetings with a commanding 1.54 ERA.
He allowed four or fewer hits in each of those two outings. Waldron has also allowed five or fewer hits in each of his past four starts.
Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+125)
8:40 PM ET, MLB.TV
Meanwhile, Quantrill should be a good fade candidate. He is 7-8 through 23 starts this year with a fade-worthy 4.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
The right-hander's analytics are even worse as Quantrill possesses a 4.69 ERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to fade the former first-round draft pick in the prop market.
Quantrill ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout total at 2.5, a number he failed to surpass in his latest start.
The opponent in that outing? San Diego.
Padres ML (-180)
8:40 PM ET, MLB.TV
The Padres won that game 10-2 against Quantrill, and we should expect a similar result on Friday. Waldron outranks Quantrill in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, San Diego's bullpen outranks Colorado's in ERA, FIP and xFIP. That just leaves the hitting, which is another clear advantage for the Padres.
They pace the Rockies in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. The only "advantage" for Colorado is home field.
With that said, San Diego's road win percentage is higher than the Rockies' home win percentage.
If we are simultaneously backing Waldron in the prop market while fading Quantrill, then a highly correlated outcome would be for the Padres to win this game.
