You'll read many things about Pirates top prospect Paul Skenes this week. You'll read that he's the greatest pitching prospect in MLB history and already a top-10 arm in the big leagues, and you'll read that you should capitalize on his hype by trading him for Kevin Gausman in fantasy baseball.
The thing is, it's very hard to figure out how good a rookie is in today's day and age. Just about every top-10 prospect is hyped into oblivion by those who don't want to be late to the party, and even those further down the top 100 prospects list carry with them plenty of praise.
You don't want to fall victim to being a proverbial "hypebeast" like many rival executives did for years when trading for middling Yankees hitters (where art thou, Dustin Fowler?), but you also don't want an inherent distrust of new talent to cloud your judgment.
In a sea of Skenes content, let's try to take an objective stance. We'll go over everything you need to know about the No. 1 overall pick in last year's MLB Draft — including betting odds, props and a scouting report — before you put down your hard-earned money on his starts.
Paul Skenes Odds, Prop Picks & Scouting Report
How many innings is Skenes going to pitch in his debut?
Herein lies the most burning question on the minds of anyone investing in Skenes. The right-hander threw 122 2/3 innings with LSU last season, and then 6 2/3 more with the Pirates later that year after he was drafted. So, all told, he amassed nearly 130 innings — though those frames in professional ball were spread across five outings.
Skenes has had his workload closely monitored thus far in Triple-A with just 27 1/3 innings in seven starts, but it's worth noting that the Pirates slowly built him up to the point where they thought he could throw an adult number of pitches. He began with a strict three-inning limit through four starts before working into the fifth, then completing six frames and once again working into the fifth before he was pulled amidst some trouble.
He wound up topping out at 75 pitches a couple of weeks ago before throwing 66 in his latest turn in the Indianapolis Indians' rotation, so it's fair to expect he should be able to throw five innings in his debut, at the very least, if he's able to stay around 80 pitches.
We've also seen pitching prospects such as Mason Black eclipse their season high in pitches when debuting in the big leagues, so it's entirely possible the Pirates let Skenes air it out immediately.
Is Skenes on an innings limit?
The truth is, we really don't know.
Some may point to Skenes' short outings to begin the Triple-A season as a sign that he does, in fact, have an innings limit and the Pirates just hoped to keep his total number of frames down at the start of his year versus the end. You can also subscribe to the idea that he was simply being built back up to a starter's workload after he was handled with gloves last season following his massive year at LSU where he went over 120 innings.
I'm much more focused on Skenes' pitch counts than his innings, because he has the chance to be a top-20 arm in the game right away, which could lead to some rather quick frames.
He's been lauded for his durability on the mound, despite hitting triple digits on his fastball with consistency, so I'm inclined to believe Pittsburgh will let him cook in his first season without much hesitation. He may only go five innings in his debut, but in a month's time, I think we'll see him go deeper into games.
How many batters will Skenes strike out?
Personally, this is my biggest question. Not just as someone who will be targeting Skenes' strikeout props, but as someone who's curious how he will fare at the big-league level.
It's very rare that a player is able to translate their excellent strikeout numbers from college and the minors to the bigs right away, and often times that can lead to struggles. Players who ride strikeouts to dominance in the minors rarely have to figure out how to pitch to contact – when you step up to big-league hitters things often change.
This is an inexact science, and perhaps not the best way of looking at a pitcher given every single one is different, but the shining example of someone successfully translating strikeout prowess to the bigs is Bryan Woo.
The Seattle righty posted an insane 13.5 strikeouts per nine at Cal Poly his senior year before striking out 13.3 per nine in his first full season in the minors. With his K/9 still sitting at 12.2 last year in Double-A, the Mariners shot him right up to the Majors, where he struck out just under 10 per nine.
So, a very fair projection for Skenes would probably have him right around 10 strikeouts per nine, which he could easily eclipse with a comical 15.3 strikeouts per nine in his senior year at LSU and 14.8 per nine in Triple-A this year.
With that, you have to make your best assessment on his innings. If he hits 100 innings in MLB — to put him right around the number of frames he pitched last year — he's probably right around 100 strikeouts for the season.
The best way to bet on Skenes
Everyone and their mother is lining up to bet the over on Skenes strikeouts on Saturday, and unfortunately for the mothers there is no Mother's Day discount to be found.
Skenes' strikeout total is set at 6.5 — a number that could easily look foolish given the other-worldly talent the righty possesses, but ultimately is a pretty inflated line given it's really anyone's guess how deep he will work into this game after throwing right around 70 pitches in each of his last two starts.
The best way to bet on Skenes is likely in the Player Futures market. FanDuel has his total number of strikeouts for the season set at 104.5, a number I think is slightly higher than what I'd project, but one that he should attain if you believe in his talent.
I'm certainly one who believes Skenes is unlike anyone we've seen in ages. He mowed down some very competent Triple-A lineups with talented prospects and grizzled veterans last month to the tune of almost 15 strikeouts per nine. Even if you factor in the natural decline in punchouts when stepping to MLB hitters, I can still easily see him striking out 12 per nine.
If he goes 100 innings at this level and experiences the drop in strikeouts we normally see out of talented strikeout arms, he should have no issues cashing this bet. I'm also very encouraged by the fact that he's pitched to a 51% ground-ball rate in Triple-A this year, inspiring confidence that he shouldn't get himself into too much trouble when the ball comes back into play.
