Tonight’s “Payoff Pitch” Best Bets
(Photo by Kavin Mistry/Getty Images) Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Our MLB betting experts have looked over Monday's seven-game slate and identified the best bets on the board.
The "Payoff Pitch" podcast crew is backing the Rays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on Monday night, so listen to the latest episode of the podcast and read below for tonight's "Payoff Pitch" best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:50 p.m. | Rays Moneyline (+123) | |
| 8:10 p.m. | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI |
Rays ML (+123) vs. Orioles
6:50 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
By Sean Zerillo
I think Ryan Pepiot is a pitcher with a lot of upside and I don't think the gap between he and Corbin Burnes is as big as many might expect.
Burnes is up to second in the Cy Young rankings right now and, per usual, has pitched phenomenally. He allows weak contact with a good defense behind him and can work in and out with his velocity, depending on the game situation. Both of these guys have the same Stuff+ (117) and since Pepiot has returned from the IL, he has posted a Stuff+ of 119, which ranks ninth amongst all starting pitchers. The biggest difference between these two is the home-run rate, in which Burnes excels because he produces a lot of weak contact.
I expect Pepiot to continue to progress and get better as the season goes on. He has the upside to become one of the best pitchers in the AL, which Burnes is right now. Pepiot has five potentially elite pitches and just has to continue to work on his command. I expect the Rays' offense to get going at some point after under-peforming throughout the first three months.
Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI at Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the best Blue Jay against right-handed pitching this season and has a 139 WRC+ over the past month.
He is finally beginning to crush the ball. He has a 60% hard-hit rate this season, which is in the 99th percentile of all hitters. He is also hitting nearly .330 in June and has covered this number in six of nine games this month. I think this is a great spot against Colin Rea, who is a bottom 5% pitcher in xBA (.296). He isn't getting the same amount of chases and whiffs as in the past and has a career worst strikeout rate of 16%.
Rea has a 5.56 xERA versus his real ERA of 3.56. I am going to buy Guerrero Jr. here after he really struggled in April, but is finally starting to see good results. I think we have a great opportunity for an extra-base hit tonight as he has been a machine of late.
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