“Payoff Pitch” Monday Best Bets
(Photo by Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images) Pictured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Payoff Pitch Podcast is back for another episode and has a few Monday best bets to dig into. So, let's listen to today's episode and break down the best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:50 p.m. | Rays -112 |
  | 10:10 p.m. | Under F5 4.5 |
Rays (-112) vs. Red Sox
6:50 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Tanner Houck has been great this season for Boston.
His stuff+ and indicators have improved, but his strikeout rate has actually remained constant. His command is better and his called-strike rate and zone rate are up. He hasn't increased whiff or chase rate and his improvements are purely based on his difference in approach. That is why I expect him to regress a bit here.
Opposing hitters have gotten more aggressive against him because his strikeout numbers haven't increased. Taj Bradley, on the other hand, really pops off in terms of stuff+ and is the full package. I have upgraded him because of his underlying metrics and think he is the better overall pitcher in this matchup. We saw this same matchup a week ago in Boston, where the Rays were +128, so having them at home at -112 is a line I like a lot.
 |  |
Under F5 4.5 vs. Diamondbacks
10:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB Network
I'm taking the first five under here so I can eliminate the bullpens.
Let's focus on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who I think has everything to be a shutdown starting pitcher. I was on his over strikeouts against the Giants in his most recent starts and he cleared that. He has looked a lot better since his first few starts and is a guy I will be betting on continually throughout the year. We saw him throw six scoreless innings against Arizona earlier this season and he only allowed five hits in that game.
Looking at the Dodgers' lineup, we've seen them struggle a bit of late. They are outside the top-10 in WRC over the past couple weeks which, relative to what they should be doing, is low. I think the Dodgers can roll in this one, but I like the first five under here.
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