The Philadelphia Phillies were in cruise control atop the National League East, but their lead atop the division has shrunk to six games over the Atlanta Braves after dropping two of three at Truist Park.
The Phillies travel to Kauffman Stadium tonight to begin a crucial three-game interleague series with the Kansas City Royals at 8:10 p.m. ET.
The Royals are still in the American League Central race. They are tied with the Minnesota Twins for second place, two games behind the Cleveland Guardians.
Phillies vs. Royals Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 9 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -165 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 9 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) | Stat | RHP Michael Wacha (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 10-6 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 5.69/6.39 | ERA /xERA | 3.33/4.25 |
| 6.08/4.91 | FIP / xFIP | 3.87/4.14 |
| 1.51 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 8.9% | K-BB% | 13.4% |
| 36.5% | GB% | 40.9% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 97 | Location+ | 101 |
Kevin Rogers’s Phillies vs Royals Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Slumping Phils
The Phillies will be playing October baseball, but they have stumbled to a 12-18 record since the All-Star break. The Braves have come back to life the last two weeks and are creeping back, but Philadelphia still has an arms-length lead with 36 games remaining.
The offense dried up in the Peach State the last three nights by scoring six runs, including rallying from a 2-0 deficit with three runs in Wednesday's 3-2 victory. The only positive that came out of this series is Philadelphia's pitching staff held Atlanta to three runs or less in each game while yielding three runs or fewer in six of the past seven contests overall.
Unfortunately, the Phillies don't have an ace like Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola in tonight's opener. Taijuan Walker owns a career-high 5.69 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, as the right-hander has taken a major drop-off since winning 15 games last season.
The Phillies won four of Walker's first five starts last season, but Philadelphia has slid to 0-7 in his past seven trips to the mound, and he has not pitched past the fifth inning in three straight outings.
In three starts as an underdog, Walker has allowed 15 runs against the Padres, Giants, and Orioles. The Phillies went 1-2 in those games, as the lone victory came in an 8-6 shootout at San Diego.
Walker defeated the Royals at home last season despite yielding three runs in the opening inning of an 8-4 win as -200 favorites.
Since the All-Star break, the Phillies have posted a disastrous 1-5 record in road series openers, allowing five runs or more four times.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Overachieving Pitching Staff
The Royals are a wild-card team holding a 3.5-game edge over the Red Sox heading into the weekend. Kansas City has excelled since the All-Star break, at 19-11, although 11 wins have come against the White Sox, Tigers, and Angels.
The next six series for the Royals will make or break their season as they face the Guardians seven times while facing the Twins, Astros, and Yankees through September 11 following the Phillies' set.
Except for a 9-5 loss to the Angels on Tuesday, the Royals' pitching staff has shut down the opposition by giving up three runs or fewer in six of the past seven games.
Kansas City is 9-3 in its last 12 series openers, scoring at least five runs on 11 occasions.
Michael Wacha has been a model of consistency the last three seasons, even with three different teams (Red Sox, Padres, and Royals), compiling an ERA of 3.32 in 2022, 3.22 in 2023, and 3.33 in 2024.
Since late June, the Royals have won nine of Wacha's last 10 starts, with the only loss coming in a ninth-inning meltdown against Arizona. Wacha has delivered at least six innings in his past four outings (all Royals' wins), while the right-hander has given up two runs or less each time.
Phillies vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Phillies fell to 3-6 in their nine matchups with the Braves this season, but Philadelphia should be excited not to face its division rivals.
The series opener trends favor the Royals, but Walker is coming off a pair of losses as a heavy favorite and is now a road underdog.
The only issue I have with Kansas City is that they have been cleaning up against subpar competition recently, posting a 2-4 record against Minnesota and Arizona since the All-Star break.
Pick: Phillies ML (+125) | Play to ML (+120)
Moneyline
Wacha lost to the Phillies last season as a member of the Padres, allowing three runs in four innings in a 5-1 defeat at Petco Park. The Phillies still have a great opportunity to grab the best record in the National League, so this is a chance to get on track this weekend.
Run Line (Spread)
Eleven of Kansas City's last 12 wins have come by two runs or more, while in Philadelphia's past six losses, the Phillies have dropped five of them by two runs or more.
Over/Under
The pitching has stepped up for both teams recently. The Phillies are 5-1 to the under in the last six contests, while Kansas City is 4-1-1 to the Under in the past six games. Walker began the season on a 6-0 overrun, but the Phillies are 4-1-1 to the Under in his past six trips to the mound.
