With a 9-4 victory on Wednesday in Los Angeles, the Phillies claimed their first series win since July 11.
After taking down the Dodgers, the Phillies now look for a measure of retribution in a rematch of last season's NLCS, which the Diamondbacks won in seven games. The Phillies-Diamondbacks series opener on Thursday at Chase Field features a battle of southpaws on the mound as Kolby Allard takes on the disappointing Jordan Montgomery.
You can find my MLB betting preview below, which includes two Phillies vs Diamondbacks predictions and picks.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -192 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +160 |
Projected Starting Pitchers for Phillies-Diamondbacks
| LHP Kolby Allard (PHI) | Stat | LHP Jordan Montgomery (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 7-5 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.50/4.13 | ERA /xERA | 6.37/5.33 |
| 5.92/4.93 | FIP / xFIP | 4.65/4.78 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.66 |
| 9.4% | K-BB% | 6.3% |
| 44% | GB% | 42.7% |
| 67 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 106 | Location+ | 98 |
Nicholas Martin's Phillies at Diamondbacks Preview
Phillies Preview: Expect Offensive Fireworks
Philadelphia got right with a series win in Los Angeles, and now has a great chance to prove its recent slump was nothing to panic over. Austin Hays is the only position player likely to be unavailable for tonight's game, so this is a good chance to see the Phillies at full strength.
Kolby Allard was effective last time out versus the Mariners, when he entered after Orion Kerkering opened the matchup. Allard has allowed a .234 xBA this season and has a hard-hit rate of 36%. He pitched to a 5.23 ERA over 63 2/3 innings in Triple A this season, with a 2.11 K/BB ratio.
Over the past month, the Phillies own a 152 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the best mark in MLB. They hold the second-ranked BB/K in that span and the seventh-ranked hard-hit rate (35.7%). Their .789 OPS versus lefties this season also ranks first in baseball.
Diamondbacks Preview: Fade Jordan Montgomery
The Diamondbacks are 8-9 in games started by Jordan Montgomery this season. Arizona holds a -14% ROI in his starts, an interesting testament to how much he's underperformed expectations. And that's despite the fact the he's receiving an average of 6.14 runs of support.
In three starts since the All-Star Break, Montgomery's struggles have continued. He's pitched to a 6.00 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP. Across 52 plate appearances since the start of July, he has pitched to a .303 xBA and been hard-hit 48% of the time.
Montgomery has been particularly awful at Chase Field, where he holds an 8.39 ERA and a 2.07 WHIP, this season.
Montgomery's 15% strikeout rate is the fifth-lowest mark of any starter to throw over 45 innings this season.
The Diamondbacks recent offensive play has been tremendous as Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno have each found their form at the plate. Christian Walker's loss has been covered for the time being by a red-hot Josh Bell, who is proving to be an excellent pickup.
However, Moreno strained his left groin Monday in Cleveland and has been placed on the 10-day IL.
Over the past 30 days, the Diamondbacks have a 136 wRC+ and a .516 slugging percentage. Their 0.45 BB/K ranks third in that span and their 34.5% hard-hit rate ranks sixth.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Betting Analysis
Despite receiving a ton of run support, Montgomery has been a profitable fade this season. The Phillies have been the best team in baseball versus lefties, and get a great matchup here to ride the momentum of a strong offensive series against the Dodgers.
Allard offers a slight edge over Montgomery, though neither is overly convincing right now. Allard is backed by one of the deepest bullpens in baseball, which is important here because it's unlikely he'll pitch deep into this game.
There also looks to be some value in backing the Phillies to win (bet pushes on 2-2 tie) this four-game series (-120), as it should be Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez going for the Phillies in the remaining three games.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -105 (Bet365, Play to -110), Phillies Series Winner (4 Games) -120 (Bet365, Play to -130)
Moneyline
| Overall | Home | Away | Favorite | Underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63-52 | 31-25 | 32-27 | 33-20 | 29-32 | |
| Phillies | 68-46 | 38-21 | 30-25 | 58-34 | 9-12 |
I'm backing the Phillies tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
| Overall | Home | Away | Favorite | Underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57-58 | 26-30 | 31-28 | 22-31 | 34-27 | |
| 57-57 | 30-29 | 27-28 | 48-44 | 8-13 |
I'm betting the Phillies, so my run-line look would naturally be backing the Phillies +1.5. However, at -205 I'll pass and just take the moneyline.
Over/Under
| Overall | Home O/U | Away O/U | Favorite O/U | Underdog O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62-49-4 | 34-21-1 | 28-28-3 | 31-22 | 31-26-4 | |
| 53-56-5 | 26-30-3 | 27-26-2 | 37-51-4 | 16-4-1 |
Oddsmakers have had a hard time setting totals high enough at Chase Field this season, and this looks like a good spot to keep backing that trend.
The over would be my lean here — particularly backing the first five innings to go Over 5 — as both starters have looked shaky and will be taking on high quality offenses in a hitter's park. If the price for F5 Pver 5 moves to -110, I'd play it.
