The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies provided endless fireworks in the 2023 NLCS, and we're seeing even more fireworks in 2024.
Game 1 of this NLCS rematch went in the Phillies' favor, thanks to an offensive explosion against reliever Dylan Floro. In Game 2, the Diamondbacks won on a walk-off from an unexpected source — rookie catcher Adrian Del Casillo. The catcher has fewer than 10 career AB's, and connected on the biggest homer of his life on Friday.
Let's get to my Diamondbacks vs Phillies prediction and moneyline pick — plus the latest odds — for Saturday night at Chase Field.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds & Prediction
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +165 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -200 |
Starting Pitchers for Phillies at Diamondbacks
| Nola | Stat | Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 3.54/3.71 | ERA /xERA | 3.75/4.09 |
| 3.88/3.47 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34/3.69 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 3.9 | K-BB% | 2.9 |
| 44.5 | GB% | 46.7 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 106 | Location+ | 100 |
Sean Paul's Phillies vs Diamondbacks Preview for Saturday
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Snakes Have Bite
The Diamondbacks could desperately use an ace performance from Zac Gallen, as their hunt for the Dodgers in the NL West is becoming more realistic by the day.
Gallen hasn't performed like an ace often lately, posting a 5.35 ERA in his past seven starts. The All-Star from 2023 allowed 3+ runs in five of seven starts, and 5+ in three of seven starts. Some of it could be unlucky since Gallen's ERA sits at 3.75 with his FIP sitting at 3.37.
One glaring issue in Gallen's profile is his hard-hit metrics. His xBA sits in the 32nd percentile, 13th in average exit velocity and 16th in hard hit percentage. He gets hit extremely hard and has a career-worst 8.3 K/9. If the Diamondbacks ace starts striking out hitters again, then it should make a sizable difference.
Saying the Diamondbacks offense is "on fire" feels like an understatement. Arizona owns the third-best wRC+ in MLB since July 15th, behind the Red Sox and Yankees. They have 38 homers, three higher than the Braves for second in that span.
The offensive hot streak coincides with Ketel Marte's unreal hot streak. He's drilled ten homers in the past three weeks, en route to cementing himself in the NL MVP race. Also on fire is veteran right-handed pitching mashers Joc Pederson and Josh Bell. Arizona only has three regular right-handed hitters in the lineup, so they are extremely dangerous versus right-handed pitching.
The Phillies can combat some of Pederson's effectiveness by putting in one of their three southpaw bullpen arms in later innings. That should prompt the Diamondbacks to pull Pederson from the game in favor of a pinch hitter.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Inconsistent Aaron Nola
That's bad for Aaron Nola, who, like Gallen, has dealt with inconsistencies. The Phillies veteran righty has a 3.54 ERA and 3.88 FIP. In Nola's last outing, he allowed four runs in six innings versus the Dodgers — another NL West foe.
In order to have a strong start on Saturday, Nola will have to get rid of demons. Nola enters his sixth career start against the Diamondbacks with a 7.67 ERA. He performed better in his two most important starts against the Snakes, posting a 3.48 ERA in two NLCS starts last year.
At 31-years-old, Nola is slowly turning into a high-level innings eater — a rich man's version of Kyle Gibson — if you will, rather than a Zack Wheeler-level ace. That's not a bad thing, but some view Nola as an All-Star level starter, rather than what he actually is.
It's crazy how two weeks can shift an entire narrative on a team. After losing 12 of 16 games, questions swirled about the Phillies' legitimacy, and then they took a series from the Dodgers in LA to prove they belong in the conversation as one of the top teams in MLB.
The Phillies offense needs their two highly-priced stars — Bryce Harper and Trea Turner to perform. Both slumped simultaneously for most of July, but Harper is hitting over .360 in his past seven games, though Turner is hitting below .200 in his past 30 games. The faithful fans in Philly don't need to boo Turner (yet), he's still hitting over .300 this year. He'll be fine, just as Harper was.
Since August 1st, the Phillies have boasted the eighth-best wRC+ in MLB at 125, led by Kyle Schwarber at 342, Nick Castellanos at 162, and Harper at 146.
Is the Phillies offense enough for to secure — at worst — a series split.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Trust Zac Gallen
I love the way the Diamondbacks are trending right now. This offense is legit, but it all comes down to whether Gallen is pitching well or not. I'm a believer in Gallen, and think he gets on track in this start after a rough stretch.
I'm looking to back the Diamondbacks often against right-handed pitching. This team can crush righties, like I discussed earlier — and does so in the power department, despite striking out fewer than 20% of the time in the past month. That's a tremendous split that makes me believe in this lineup even more.
Moneyline
Arizona has some decent value at -115 with the hotter lineup and better pitcher on the mound. They have won eight of ten games, including a series win in Cleveland.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on the run line here. I don't see much value on either side.
Over/Under
I'm cool with grabbing the over on 8.5 runs. Neither pitcher is immune to giving up runs, and the high run scoring setting in Arizona with a pair of strong offense makes the over worth a look.
