Tonight the Philadelphia Phillies will travel to face off against the Atlanta Braves in Truist Park. This begins a three-game series between these two NL East foes, with the Braves having one four of their six previous matchups this season.
The Phillies (73-51) got out to an early lead this year and never looked back. They currently have a seven game lead on the Braves in the divisional race and are in a battle for the number one seed in the NL postseason bracket. Atlanta (66-58) is currently holding onto the last wild card spot by just 1.5 games over the Mets.
Philadelphia is the favorite on the road tonight at -135 in a game with an over/under of 8 runs. Let’s take a look at my preview for the Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night at 7:20 p.m. ET on TBS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 8.5 -102/-115 | -1.5 +124 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 8.5 -102/-115 | +1.5 -149 |
Phillies vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zach Wheeler | Stat | RHP Reynaldo Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 2.72/2.98 | ERA /xERA | 2.06/4.04 |
| 3.41/3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 3.17/3.88 |
| 0.98 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 20.2 | K-BB% | 15.3 |
| 42.7 | GB% | 38.0 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 102 |
Cody Goggin’s Phillies vs Braves Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Expect A Solid Showing From Wheeler
Zack Wheeler will get the start for Philadelphia tonight. He has been uber-reliable this season, posting a 2.72 ERA over 148.2 IP. He also has an xERA of 2.99 and a SIERA of 3.49 as he has pitched extremely well overall.
Wheeler ranks in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate and 62nd percentile in whiff rate this season. He also is in the 60th percentile in walk rate as he issues a free pass only 7.3% of the time.
The Phillies’ ace has done well to avoid quality contact this season. He ranks in the 86th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 94th percentile in average exit velocity. Wheeler’s barrel rate allowed is in the 41st percentile, which isn’t shocking as he isn’t an extreme ground ball pitcher.
Philadelphia has a top ten offense by most metrics this year. They are 6th in wOBA, 10th in wRC+, 5th in OBP, 7th in SLG, 10th in ISO, and 4th in BABIP. The Phillies rank 8th in walk rate and strike out at a below average rate, ranking 19th.
The Phillies haven’t hit the ball extraordinarily hard, as they are 11th in hard hit rate, 18th in barrel rate, and 16th in exit velocity. However, because they get plenty of walks and avoid strikeouts, they have performed better as a whole than most teams. They rank 10th in xSLG, 8th in xwOBA, and 9th in xwOBACON, so I’m not worried about them going forward.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Limiting Strikeouts Key for ATL
Reynaldo Lopez will get the nod for Atlanta tonight. The 30-year old is having the best season of his career, posting a 2.06 ERA through 104.2 IP. Lopez has been vastly outperforming his peripherals as his xERA is 4.40 and his SIERA is 4.06.
Lopez recently suffered a forearm injury and will be making his return from the IL today. He last pitched in the Major Leagues on July 28th where he was removed after three innings.
This year Lopez ranks in the 61st percentile in strikeout rate and 57th percentile in whiff rate. He has allowed an 8.7% walk rate, which ranks in the 37th percentile.
Most of his underlying cause for concern comes from the batted ball metrics, as Lopez is 24th percentile in barrel rate, 34th percentile in hard hit rate, and 30th percentile in average exit velocity. He also has just a 26th percentile ground ball rate, which typically doesn’t go well with poor batted ball metrics.
The Braves rank 15th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this season. They are 6th in ISO and 12th in SLG, but just 21st in OBP. Atlanta ranks 19th in walk rate and strikes out at the 6th-highest rate in baseball.
Almost nobody hits the ball harder than the Braves, as they are 2nd in hard hit rate, 2nd in barrel rate, and 1st in exit velocity. They pull the ball at the highest rate in the league and have the 7th-lowest ground ball rate, so you would expect them to have better overall numbers, but their strikeouts have really dragged them down.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
Simply put, I think the Phillies have the best pitcher in this matchup. I would give Atlanta’s offense a slight edge but the difference between the offenses is not enough to overcome the starting pitching discrepancy in my mind.
Reynaldo Lopez has had good results this season, but the Philadelphia offense is a top ten unit and should be able to give him a challenge. Lopez has stranded an absurd 86.1% of his runners, which isn’t likely to hold up going forward.
Zack Wheeler is the ace of this Philadelphia staff and he has performed as such this season. The Braves hit the ball hard, but Wheeler has done well in his own right limiting this hard contact. His ability to make batters whiff should fare well against this swing-happy Atlanta offense as he has strikeout upside.
My favorite way to play this matchup is taking the Phillies -0.5 over the first five innings at -105 and would take this to -115. I believe Wheeler is the superior pitcher by far and think that this will show up on the diamond tonight.
Pick: Phillies -0.5 Over First Five Innings (-105)
Moneyline
The Phillies are an outstanding 42-23 at home this season compared to just 31-28 on the road. Citizens Bank Park has been a strong home field advantage for Philadelphia this season.
While I prefer the F5 line, I also don’t mind taking the Phillies on the full game moneyline. Wheeler has the ability to go deep into games and with Lopez coming off of the IL, the Braves may have to lean heavily on their bullpen tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
The Braves are just 30-36 ATS on the road this season while the Phillies are 33-32 ATS at home.
Just as I like the Phillies on the moneyline, I would take them on the spread too. Because of the uncertainty with Lopez’s injury and the potential for a blow-up game, I think taking the run-line on this game could provide good value as well, as I would say there is a greater than average chance of Philadelphia winning by multiple runs as compared to the current price.
Over/Under
I don’t have a strong lean either way in this matchup, but if I had to choose I’d take the under. These bullpens both rank in the top four in xFIP and even though the offenses are good, there is a chance of both of these pitchers turning in quality starts and the great bullpens suppressing this total score.
The under has gone 33-29-3 in Phillies home games this season and 35-26-5 in Braves home games this season.
