The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 10, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSO.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Braves prediction, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more, below.
The Phillies will look to start the season with a fourth consecutive series win Thursday when they play the rubber match of a three-game set versus the Braves. Two tremendous young pitchers will face off as Jesus Luzardo is set to make his third start with the Phillies against Atlanta's Spencer Schwellenbach.
My Phillies vs Braves Prediction
- Phillies vs Braves picks: Under 7.5 Total Runs -125 (Bet365, Play to -130)
My Phillies vs Braves best bet is Under 7.5 Total Runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -110/110 | +105 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 110/110 | -125 |
Phillies vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
Nick Martin’s Phillies vs Braves Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Luzardo Throwing Well
Attempting to buy low on players coming from the Miami Marlins has been a sound strategy in recent years, and the Phillies may have made a savvy bet in acquiring Luzardo over the offseason. When healthy, Luzardo has all the tools to be significantly better than an average starter, and all indicators suggest he is poised for a tremendous season.
Through his first two starts with the Phillies, Luzardo has pitched to a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92. He was fantastic in his last outing versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing just two hits, zero earned runs, and recording eight strikeouts.
His five-pitch mix grades out extremely well, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 123 and a Pitching+ rating of 136 this season. His elite stuff has allowed him to strike out 41.3% of batters throughout his first two starts, and he's managed a whiff rate of 34.9%. He also holds a K-BB% of 32.6%.
Luzardo's fastball velocity is in the 87th percentile, and his elite secondary stuff complements his quality fastball well.
Philadelphia's offense will look to continue its strong start to the season in this matchup versus one of the game's best starters in Schwellenbach. The Phillies hold a wRC+ of 124 throughout the first 11 games, and a wRC+ of 126 versus right-handed pitchers, which is a considerable improvement upon last season's mark. They are third with a BB/K of 0.56 but rank 24th with a hard-hit rate of 29.7%.
The Phillies bullpen should be a strength once again this season, after posting a 3.94 ERA and 3.81 xFIP last season. Jose Alverado took 30 pitches to earn the save in Wednesday's win, but the Phillies relief staff is in good shape overall entering this matchup.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Waiting for the Offense to Click
With a 2-9 record, the Braves have already dug a six-game hole in what figures to be a very tough NL East. Given what we have seen from Luzardo, it may take a tremendous start from Schwellenbach for Atlanta to earn its third win of the season, but the 24-year-old righty is more than capable.
Schwellenbach had a fantastic rookie campaign last season, finishing with a 3.35 ERA across 123 and 2/3 innings of work. His underlying results were also excellent, as he held an xERA of 3.44 and an xFIP of 3.34.
There are currently five pitchers in MLB who have thrown at least 10 innings and allowed zero earned runs this season, and Schwellenbach is one of them. In 14 innings of work versus the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres, Schwellenbach has allowed only three hits, holds a K-BB% of 28.3, and has an xERA of 1.92.
In a small sample, Schwellenbach's pitch metrics suggest the 24-year-old is pitching at a significantly higher level than last season. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 127 and a Pitching+ rating of 143.
The Braves have had a horrible start to the campaign offensively, slugging just .327 with a wRC+ of 82. They hold a wRC+ of just 71 versus lefties. They obviously have the talent to bounce back offensively over a larger sample, which I thought might happen in yesterday's matchup versus Taijuan Walker. Still, it's certainly a concerning start for an offense lacking its best player in Ronald Acuna Jr.
The Braves bullpen projects to be one of the best units in baseball and is off to a strong start with a 3.49 xFIP and 25.9% K-rate.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
Schwellenbach projects to be one of the best starters in baseball this season and is currently priced as the fourth favorite to win the NL Cy Young. The underlying numbers suggest his excellent start has not simply been favorable luck on batted balls, while his pitch metrics are among the league's very best.
While Schwellenbach is arguably more of a lock to be an elite starter this season, Luzardo's start to the campaign has been equally convincing. He features a high-quality pitch mix, which will continue to put opposing batters in very difficult spots if he can keep working ahead in the count.
At -125, there looks to be value in targeting a pitching duel and betting this game to feature under 7.5 total runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 Total Runs -125 (Bet365)
Moneyline
The prices on sides in this matchup look fair to me. Schwellenbach is attempting to handle a more difficult lineup, but it is still fair to say he offers an edge over Luzardo in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
The run-line prices also look accurate.
Over/Under
As outlined, my favorite play on this game is betting under 7.5 total runs.
