The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 9, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH+.
Taijuan Walker had a surprisingly dominant performance in his first outing of the season, allowing just three hits and no earned runs against the Colorado Rockies last Thursday. He faces a much tougher matchup on Wednesday as he looks to outpitch Grant Holmes.
Continue below for my Phillies vs Braves predictions for Wednesday night, which is a pick on the First Five Innings (F5) total. You can also find my same-game parlay, probable pitchers and more.
Phillies vs Braves Parlay Predictions, Picks
- Braves First Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
- F5 Over 4.5
- Full-Game Total Over 8.5
- Parlay Odds: +274 (DraftKings)
The Braves could potentially crush Taijuan Walker early in this matchup, which is the main reasoning behind our parlay.
Grant Holmes will likely prove to be the superior starter and may not need to be overly dominant to exit the game, especially if we want to cash our other two legs.
Including the game total over 8.5 in the mix boosts our parlay return significantly, as it will require some offense during the bullpen innings.
While both teams do have plenty of quality relievers, it’s a risk I’m willing to take given the offensive upside of each team and the possibility that we’re already close to the 8.5 total when the starters come out.
Phillies vs Braves Odds, Prediction
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
- Phillies vs Braves Moneyline: Phillies +115, Braves -135
- Phillies vs Braves Total: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Phillies vs Braves Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-170), Braves -1.5 (+143)
Phillies vs Braves Probable Starting Pitchers
Phillies vs Braves Preview & Prediction Today
Phillies Betting Preview: Walker the Punching Bag
Being the only consistently bad starter among the Phillies' rotation over the past two seasons has led to a lot of negative commentary toward Walker from Phillies' fans, who love to criticize him at every opportunity.
Walker surprised the fanbase with an excellent season debut, but it was against the Rockies, who are expected to finish near the bottom of baseball in almost every offensive category.
In 83 2/3 innings in 2024, Walker posted a 7.10 ERA and a 7.09 xERA. He had a K-BB% of 5.5 and was hard-hit 46.3% of the time.
Walker offered a different pitch mix in his season debut compared to last season, throwing his cutter more than any other pitch. He had a Stuff+ rating of 96 and a Pitching+ rating of 93 versus the Rockies, which were year-over-year improvements.
With all the key pieces from Philadelphia’s dominant 2024 campaign still with the team, it’s no surprise that the Phillies' offense is off to a strong start. The Phillies have a wRC+ of 123 in their first 10 games and a 0.60 BB/K ratio, which ranks third in baseball.
Braves Betting Preview: Don't Discount Atlanta
It's been a surprisingly horrid 2-8 start to the year for the Braves, who are expected to contend in a highly competitive NL East. They are still without two of baseball's best in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider and will now be without a quality starter in Reynaldo Lopez for at least 12 weeks.
Even without Acuna Jr., the Braves offense should be much more productive than we have seen so far. It hasn't helped that seven of their 10 games have come against the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, but their offensive wRC+ rating of 77 is certainly concerning.
The Braves still feature a fairly deep lineup headlined by Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Austin Riley and offered a more convincing performance in Tuesday's series opener, managing 11 hits and seven runs. Walker should prove to be the worst of any starter they have matched up with this season, which should give Atlanta a good opportunity to continue the offensive upswing.
The consensus from the major projection systems is that Holmes will hold an ERA north of 4.00 and offer league-average results. He struggled in his season debut versus a high-powered Dodgers offense, allowing four earned runs across five innings.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, F5 Pick
It seems likely that we’ll see some offensive fireworks early in this matchup, as two quality offenses face off against a pair of middling starters.
The Braves haven’t gotten off to a great start offensively, but have a proven lineup, which suggests it would be foolish to put too much stock into their slow start. Walker is arguably the worst starter they’ve faced, and it seems likely that his excellent season debut will prove to be an outlier moving forward.
Holmes should be a league-average starter this season and likely won’t perform as poorly as he did against the Dodgers moving forward. However, the Phillies should be among baseball’s best offensively and will provide Holmes with another tough matchup.
At -120, I see value in backing this game to feature over 4.5 runs in the first five innings. There’s a chance the Braves dominate Walker, who’s had plenty of blowups over the past two seasons, but I’m also high on the chances Philadelphia can contribute to the total against Holmes.
Pick: Over 4.5 Total Runs First Five Innings -120 (DraftKings)
Moneyline
At -135, the Braves would be my lean for betting a side, as they have a considerable starting pitching edge and are better than their 2-8 record suggests.
Lean: Braves Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Braves to cover the run line at +150 likely provides some value, as we can bank on the idea that Walker will still be close to the same pitcher we saw in 2024.
Pick: Pass.
Over/Under
Backing the game to go over 8.5 runs is a solid option, but I see more value in targeting the Walker vs. Holmes innings, even though oddsmakers are pricing in the idea that the early innings are more likely to be high-scoring to some extent.
