The Chicago Cubs (16-10) and Philadelphia Phillies (13-12) meet at Wrigley Field on Friday, April 25. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
The Phillies are coming off a brutal sweep at the hands of their division rival, the New York Mets. It is clear the National League is going to be a dog fight all season so the Phillies will need to shake it off and bounce back quickly against another NL division leader in the Chicago Cubs. Chicago has been fighting off the NL West all season long and enters Friday off two straight wins against the Dodgers.
Find my Phillies vs Cubs prediction, probable pitchers, betting trends and more below.
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction
- Phillies vs Cubs picks:Cubs Moneyline (-130 to -135)
My Phillies vs Cubs best bet is the Cubs moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Cubs Odds, Lines
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -120o / -100u | +120 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -120o / -100u | -145 |
Phillies vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) | Stat | RHP Colin Rea (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.29 / 3.76 | ERA /xERA | 1.32 / 3.53 |
| 4.25 / 4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 1.49 / 3.38 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 9.6% | K-BB% | 19.6% |
| 43.9% | GB% | 37.2% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 103 |
Mike Ianniello’s Phillies vs Cubs MLB Picks For Friday
Why The Phillies Can Cover: Sputtering Offense
Taijuan Walker has been the black sheep of the Phillies' rotation and was the bane of existence for Philadelphia fans last season. He made 15 starts and was terrible, finishing the year with a 7.10 ERA. He ranked in the bottom 3% of the league in nearly every statistical category.
Luckily for the Phillies, he has been much better this year.
Walker has started with a 2.29 ERA through four starts and his entire profile looks different. He has gotten a little lucky, sporting a 3.76 xERA. But that is still light years better than last season.
Walker’s strikeout rate is up, he is limiting hard contact and he has really altered his pitch mix to early success.
When the Phillies' lineup is clicking, they are as dangerous as any team in the league. They have high-end star power and solid depth.
However, they are not firing on all cylinders right now. The rank just 12th in scoring this season and have a lot of players underperforming.
The biggest issue has been the lack of power. They have hit just 21 home runs all year — only eight teams have fewer.
Kyle Schwarber has seven home runs and Bryce Harper has hit five, but nobody else has more than three. Alec Bohm has been awful while Trea Turner, JT Realmuto and Max Kepler each have an OPS under .700.
Why The Cubs Can Cover: Rea Finds a Way
After three seasons with the Brewers, Colin Rea signed with the Cubs in January. He was expected to mostly work out of the bullpen, but early injuries have forced him into the rotation.
So far, so good for Rea in the Windy City.
He has made five total appearances with two starts and has a 1.32 ERA. His xERA is more than two runs higher than that, but he has still showed noticeable improvements.
Finding a way to take a big step forward at age 34 is difficult, but for Rea, it appears like he found a very easy solution: Throw his best pitches more often.
Last year, Rea had a 4.29 throwing six different pitches. Of those six pitches, his fastball and his slider were the only two pitches that finished with a positive run value. They were his second and fourth most thrown pitches.
This season, they are his top two offerings.
- Fastball — 2024: 19.5%; 2025: 47.1%
- Slider — 2024: 16.6%; 2025: 19.2%
The Cubs' offense has been dominant.
They lead the league in runs scored, and by a wide margin. Chicago’s 163 runs are 26 more than the next-closest team. That’s a full run scored per game more than any other team.
Chicago does it all well. It ranks second in walks, third in home runs, and first in stolen bases.
Kyle Tucker is a top-tier superstar, and his price tag is going up more and more each game. He has a 1.060 OPS and leads the league in runs scored.
But he is not doing it alone.
Michael Busch is having a breakout season, and Pete Crow-Armstrong appears to be on the verge of stardom.
How To Make Phillies vs Cubs Picks
These two starting pitchers have very similar profiles.
Rea and Walker struggled to ERAs north of 4.00 last season but have gotten off to much better starts. Both have significantly tweaked their pitch mixes, relying more heavily on the pitches that have been most successful and reducing the offerings that have been hit hard.
Rea has started the year with a 1.32 ERA and Walker sits at 2.29. Both pitchers have upped their strikeout rates and done a much better job at limiting hard contact.
Now, both pitchers are also due for some negative regression and have gotten a bit lucky. Rea has an xERA of 3.53 while Walker has an xERA of 3.76. But, even if they regress a little to those marks, it is still an improvement from last season.
It's never fun to bet against the Phillies' offense given their upside — but the Cubs have just been better all season.
Chicago has been the best offense in the league for the first month of the season. It hits for power, generates walks, and possesses elite speed on the base paths. Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstong, Michael Busch and Ian Happ are smashing the ball right now.
The Cubs the advantage on the mound, they have the advantage at the plate, and they are at home in the Friendly Confines.
Take the Cubs on Friday afternoon.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -130
Moneyline
I'm on the Cubs moneyline on Friday.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm passing on any bet for the run line.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on the over/under.
Phillies vs Cubs Parlay
- Cubs 135
- Taijuan Walker Under 3.5 Strikeouts -140
- Kyle Tucker Hit -235
Parlay odds: +274 (DraftKings)
