The Chicago Cubs (17-10) host the Philadelphia Phillies (13-13) on Saturday, April 26. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Phillies enter Saturday on a five-game losing streak, but they're in a good spot to put an end to their skid with Jesus Luzardo on the hill. The left-hander has been electric to start the season and is key to our two Phillies vs Cubs predictions and picks for Saturday.
Phillies vs Cubs Predictions
- Phillies vs Cubs picks: First Five Innings Under 4; Jesus Luzard Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Our Phillies vs Cubs best bets for Saturday are on the F5 under 4 and Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Cubs Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -190 | 7 -100o / -120u | -112 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +157 | 7 -100o / -120u | -104 |
Phillies vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | RHP Ben Brown (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.08 / 2.64 | ERA /xERA | 4.57 / 4.49 |
| 1.78 / 2.79 | FIP / xFIP | 4.51 / 4.00 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.75 |
| 24.2% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 42.1% | GB% | 41.3% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 114 | Location+ | 92 |
Phillies vs Cubs Predictions, Betting Analysis
By Nick Galaida
The Cubs' offense has done a lot of damage against southpaws in 2025, but the weather at Wrigley Field this afternoon is pitcher friendly with 13 mph winds blowing in from left field and the temperature forecasted to be below 50 degrees at first pitch.
It's going to be difficult to hit the ball out of the park today on the North Side, creating some value on the under.
Pick: First Five Innings (F5) Under 4 (-140; BetMGM)
Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo seems to continue walking into good spots.
While this is not an easy matchup against a Cubs team that has been absolutely raking to start the season, we have extreme pitcher-friendly weather at Wrigley Field — even more so than on Friday in a game that finished with four runs.
Luzardo has posted a 2.08 ERA and 2.79 xFIP for his new team to start 2025, and that has come with a massive 30% strikeout rate.
He has been working deeper into games and should continue to thrive in the conditions today. I have been targeting his strikeouts over every time he takes the mound, and we're getting a friendly number at 5.5.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104; FanDuel)
