The Philadelphia Phillies begin a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night at Dodger Stadium, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
Phillies-Dodgers on Monday sets up for a potential pitchers' duel as Aaron Nola squares off against Tyler Glasnow. Phillies vs Dodgers odds (via ESPN Bet) have the Dodgers as -130 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (-120o / +100u).
The Phillies and Dodgers met in a three-game series earlier this season — Philadelphia pulled off the sweep at Citizens Bank Park. Will the Dodgers get revenge on Monday night in this matchup between two of the National League's elite teams?
Continue reading for Phillies vs Dodgers predictions, picks& MLB odds.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -200 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) | Stat | RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-4 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 3.43/3.54 | ERA /xERA | 3.50/2.60 |
| 3.86/3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 2.95/2.67 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 17.5% | K-BB% | 25.6% |
| 44.8% | GB% | 47.5% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 119 |
| 106 | Location+ | 102 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Preview, Predictions
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Slumping Phils
The Phillies snapped a season-long six-game skid Sunday with a 6-0 victory, and now it gets a chance to play the World Series-favorite Dodgers.
Philadelphia still holds a six-game lead atop the division because of its incredible start, but the desire to once again play like a top side is certainly leaking into the clubhouse. Bryce Harper even switched to long socks for yesterday's matchup to try to turn his personal luck around, and the plan worked as he managed three hits and a home run.
Players and managers will always say the right things postgame and look for anything to change a team's juju. That's nothing new or noteworthy, and the more important thing to consider is everything that the Phillies' lineup has proven over the last two seasons.
JT Realmuto's form at the plate has tailed off compared to last season and significantly compared to 2022. At age 33, maybe that won't change, but the rest of the Phillies' lineup still looks quite scary on paper and enters this series at full health.
Philadelphia finished with a 10th-ranked wRC+ of 105 last season and enters this matchup ranking ninth in 2024. It's hit to a seventh-ranked xwOBA of .326 this season and a wOBA of .324.
A large sample of this lineup's work suggests not to write it off because of a bad month, but things have gotten pretty bad at the plate recently.
Against right-handed pitching, in particular, Philadelphia has hit to a wRC+ of 85 over the last 30 days with an OPS of .663. It held a hard-hit rate of 28.7% in that span and struck out 24.8% of the time.
Aaron Nola has remained consistent, though, and enters this matchup in the midst of a solid run of play. Over Nola's last 48 1/3 innings pitched, he holds an ERA of 3.35 and an xFIP of 3.13. He's struck out 9.68 batters per nine in that span and has pitched to an xBA of .223.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Glasnow Spotty of Late
Tyler Glasnow features one of the best underlying profiles of any starter in the league, but he's posted modest results where it counts for a fairly large sample of play.
Over his last 47 innings pitched, Glasnow holds an ERA of 4.21 but a stellar xFIP of 2.66 and a FIP of 3.38. He's struck out 11.49 batters per nine in that span and has allowed a xBA of .199. He's underachieved in ERA, though, because of a strand rate of just 66.3% and a 18.4% HR/FB.
The Dodgers' lineup has suffered over the last week with Freddie Freeman on the sidelines and Cavan Biggio filling in at first base, alongside several other lineup regulars. Freeman reportedly could return in this series but is rightfully in no rush given the situation.
Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have hit to a 12th-ranked wRC+ of 112 against RHP but hold the worst strikeout rate in the MLB at 27.6%. Their hard-hit rate of 29.5% ranks 25th.
The Dodgers' relievers have also continued to struggle of late. Over the last 30 days, they hold an ERA of 4.69 with an xFIP of 3.98.
Phillies vs Dodgers Predictions, Betting Analysis
This series could come at the right time for a Phillies side that's looked a little disengaged of late after coasting through the season's first half.
With the Dodgers suffering through a number of notable absences, the Phillies' lineup arguably holds more upside at this time. Glasnow should dominate in the season's back half, but this game still could be a nail-biter given the way Nola is going.
The Phillies look to be the side holding slightly more betting value in Monday's matchup, but the most value might lie with backing them to win the three-game series at +125.
It should be Cristopher Sanchez vs. Clayton Kershaw tomorrow and Tyler Phillips vs. Gavin Stone in Wednesday's game. Based on those projected matchups, the Dodgers don't hold enough of a pitching edge for me to justify a number that is that much longer than today's game line.
It looks to be a good way to get some action on what should be a compelling series.
Pick: Phillies To Win Three-Game Series +125 (bet365, Play to +120)
Moneyline
As noted, the Phillies would be my lean in terms of a side in this matchup, as they look to take advantage of a depleted Dodgers lineup with an excellent pitcher of their own on the mound.
