The Philadelphia Phillies (83-56) and Miami Marlins (52-87) begin their four-game series on Thursday night at loanDepot park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Bally Sports Florida and NBC Sports Philadelphia. This is a matchup between the best and worst teams in the National League East.
The Phillies sit just a half-game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL, which means every game is important as they fight for home-field advantage — and the rival Marlins have a chance to play spoiler. The Phillies enter Thursday having just taken both games in a short set against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the Marlins split a two-game matchup at home with the Washington Nationals.
In this Thursday affair, the recently returned Ranger Suarez takes the mound for the Phillies as the Marlins turn to Adam Oller. Let's get into the latest MLB odds, and then my Phillies vs Marlins predictions and F5 pick for Thursday, September 5.
Phillies-Marlins Prediction
- Phillies-Marlins pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+105)
My Phillies-Marlins best bet is on the first five innings (F5) over 4.5 runs, where I see value at +105. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-240 | 8 -115o / -105u | -1.5 -150 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+196 | 8 -115o / -105u | +1.5 +126 |
- Phillies-Marlins Moneyline: Phillies -240 | Marlins +196
- Phillies-Marlins Over/Under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Phillies-Marlins Run Line: Phillies -2.5 (+105) | Marlins +2.5 (-125)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Phillies at Marlins
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | Adam Oller (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-6 | W-L | other |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.02 / 3.21 | ERA /xERA | 3.31 /3.77 |
| 3.10 / 3.09 | FIP / xFIP | 4.66 / 5.11 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 19.1% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 52.1% | GB% | 36.6% |
| 83 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 104 | Location+ | 94 |
Phillies-Marlins Preview & Predictions
Betting Preview: Ranger Suarez Still Rusty
It can be hard to bet on the Phillies, as they're normally one of the better priced teams in the MLB due to their star studded roster and popularity. At 83-56 on the season, you would expect them to be a profitable money line team, but if you had bet on their money line all 139 times so far this season, you would be up around one unit, depending on line pricing.
The Phils are heavy favorites quite often, and they are so again tonight. You need to regularly be priced to win in order to be one of the best teams in baseball but not the most profitable. The relationship between these two is correlated to how much a team has defied expectations. To put it simply, the Phillies have not defied expectations. They were predicted to be good and they are good, so there's little opportunity profit relative to teams that perform unexpectedly.
Philly turns to Ranger Suarez to combat the Marlins in game one of the four game meetup. These teams last met in August for a two game set at Citizen Bank Park, which they split. Suarez, who was on the shelf with an injury, didn't pitch against them then – but did face up against Miami in late June. They shockingly beat him up, scoring six runs on ten hits while not even striking out once in 4.2 innings. This game was the start of a 18 ER in 4-appearance run for Suarez that directly preceded his injury list stint.
Suarez relies on his change up to keep hitters off balance, and then uses a curveball sinker mix along with a fastball. The problem is, when the changeup stops working, hitters can simply wait for the curve or a bad fastball (he makes a lot of mistakes on the fastball) and battle off everything else for fouls.
In the two starts since returning, the concerns have not been alleviated for Suarez. He's not getting the swinging strikes you want to see and even with Miami's depleted roster, there are players who can turn a pitch around and punish mistakes. The Phillies should be able to hit Adam Oller and the Marlins, and likely get the win, but don't be shocked if Miami scores some tonight, too.
Marlins Betting Preview: Fade the Fish?
The Miami Marlins sold at the deadline, are one of the worst teams in baseball, probably tanking, but have won six of their last 10 games. While that is technically true, it's also probably a bit of a bad indicator. They beat the Cubs in the final game of a series to avoid a sweep before splitting a four-game series with Colorado, taking two of three against San Fransisco and then splitting a pair with the Nats. None of those teams are very good, and the Cubs win was after the series was lost. Have no fear, Miami is still bad.
Does that mean you can reliably fade the fish today in your parlays? I'm not totally sure, probably full game, yes, but starting pitcher, Adam Oller, might be able to give Miami a chance to keep it close at the start of this one.
Oller, a righty, has great stuff but some poor location. Quite the opposite of Ranger Suarez, but even with a slightly below average ability to locate, he maintains a competitive advantage with a very consistent ability to throw his pitches. He only throws three pitches, which helps maintain consistency. The four seam fastball is thrown 57% of the time and the curve is thrown 33% of the time, both of those rate in the 97th percentile of usage. He then mixes in a change up for the final 10%.
The fastball and curve are above average pitches, but what stands out the most is that Oller has a mistake percent under 1.5% for both. The MLB average is over 6% on both of those pitch types. His impressive lack of errors is reduced only by the lack of sample size. Oller has only made three starts. His first was rocky against Arizona, allowing five runs on three hits and four walks, but he's since calmed down, firing a combined 11.2 innings of one-run ball against the Giants and Cubs, striking out 14 and walking four.
There is a pretty fair shot that he could continue his solid performance, but we should note that pitching in San Fransisco is very beneficial for that curveball, so with the Phillies stronger lineup, there's probably a good chance things go worse than they have been for Oller.
The bullpen is also a disadvantage for the Marlins today, with Miami having used most of their top arms in yesterday's game. So, if betting full game, consider that the steep price is reflecting a sustained disadvantage in pitching for the entire game and a worse lineup than what their opponents will be bringing to the table.
Phillies-Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis: F5
There has been movement toward the Phillies on this line. With an opener of -220 to a current consensus close to -240, it's a move that saw some initial disagreement as well as some buy back, but neither was enough to keep the line from continuing to move toward the Phillies. That makes some sense, this should be a game the Phillies can win both in the early stages or late stages of this game. They are the superior team and Kyle Schwarber is seeing the ball well, which seems to last for a while and be impactful, whenever it happens.
The total hasn't moved, fastened firmly at eight, but the pricing has jumped around a bit. You can find -105 or -115 on either side currently. There is a strong trend here, the Marlins are 47-18-6 O/U at home. Assuming prices of -112, that's at least 27 units of profit on just 65 graded wagers.
I like the over, but the issue is the Phillies bullpen, and pitching in general, could keep the Marlins limited. My favorite angle for this game is betting that Ranger Suarez is more likely to give up a run or two in his current form than the bullpen is. Plus, I think the Phillies offense gets to Adam Oller, so I'll take the bullpen out of the equation and go with the F5 Over 4.5.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+105)
Moneyline
The Phillies are the better team in this matchup and deserve the steep price. The market conviction is a nice touch, but the important reason to feel confidence here is the lineup advantage as well as the superior bullpens. It wouldn't be surprising to see a late inning rally off the Miami relievers to either extend a lead and put the game to bed, or to propel the Phillies to a comeback victory. There might be some contrarian value to a F5 ML on the Marlins, as Ranger Suarez might not be performing as well as expected, or priced as though he's doing better than his metrics suggest.
Run Line (Spread)
It's going to seem square but the Phillies on the run line here is most likely the smart play. There is certainly a chance that Miami gets this done and wins, but if they're losing by a small amount late they might opt to rest their top relievers, who did pitch yesterday. What that could mean is the road team Phillies getting a chance to hit in the 8th and 9th against weaker arms like Xzavion Curry and Mike Baumann. If you like the Marlins, the value for their side is likely the money line in a surprising victory, while the Phillies have a better chance to run away with a victory and cover tonight.
Over/Under
Runs seem to be the norm in Miami, the total trend record is eye opening but even at those numbers, it's not predictive and we can't simply base our bet on that. The reason why the Over is still a good value is that both starting pitchers could struggle, both bullpens have been used recently, and both lineups have good hitters. Jake Burger and Jesus Sanchez do not get the credit they deserve, Connor Norby is playing well at the top of the Marlins line up, too. If Ranger Suarez can't keep hitters off balance and Adam Oller struggles against a good lineup in a change from the 4th best pitching park (SF) to the seventh worst (MIA)… this one could be a high scoring affair. I like both the first five inning total over and the Phillies to go over their team total.
Phillies-Marlins Betting Trends
- 90% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the Phillies on the moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the over.
- 93% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
Phillies Trends
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 31-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Phillies' 72 last games at home
Marlins Trends
- Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Marlins are 34-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Marlins' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 47 of Marlins' 71 last games at home
Phillies-Marlins Key Injuries
Phillies Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 3B Alec Bohm | Sore left hand (out) |
| RHP Spencer Turnbull | Right lat strain (60-day IL) |
Marlins Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Anthony Bender | Right shoulder impingement (15-day IL) |
| INF Vidal Brujan | Right shoulder AC joint sprain (10-day IL) |
| LHP Andrew Nardi | Left elbow (15-day IL) |
| LHP Ryan Weathers | Left index finger strain (60-day IL) |
Phillies-Marlins Weather Forecast Thursday
