The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field for Game 3 of the NLDS on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FS1 — other viewing/streaming options include MLB.TV, Fubo and Sling TV.
Returning home tied 1-1, as all four MLB Division Series happen to be for the first time in league history, the Mets have stolen home-field advantage and can eliminate rival the rival Phillies by holding court for the next two games. The Mets hand the ball to Sean Manaea, as the lefty looks to battle Aaron Nola for a pivotal second win.
Phillies vs Mets odds for Game 3 have the Phillies as -115 moneyline favorites and Mets as -105 underdogs. The over/under is a consensus total of 7 (-105o / -115u). The Phillies are +158 to cover the run line (-1.5) while the Mets are -190 (+1.5)
Find my Phillies vs Mets predictions and Game 3 picks, plus the latest odds and analysis on today's starting lineups and probable pitchers for Tuesday, Oct. 8.
My Phillies vs Mets Predictions for Game 3
- Phillies vs Mets picks: Under 7 (+100 | Play to -110)
My Phillies vs Mets best bet is Under 7, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Odds, Prediction
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 7 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +158 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 7 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -190 |
- Phillies vs Mets Moneyline: Phillies -115, Mets -105
- Phillies vs Mets Total: Over/Under 7 (-105o / -115u)
- Phillies vs Mets Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+158), Mets +1.5 (-190)
Game 3 Probable Pitchers for Phillies vs Mets
| RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) | Stat | LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-8 | W-L | 12-6 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 3.57 / 3.75 | ERA /xERA | 3.47 / 3.75 |
| 3.94 / 3.44 | FIP / xFIP | 3.83 / 4.04 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 17.9% | K-BB% | 16.4% |
| 44.5% | GB% | 37.6% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 105 | Location+ | 97 |
Phillies vs Mets Game 3 Lineups, Previews, Predictions
Phillies Betting Preview: Lineup & Aaron Nola Analysis
Phillies Starting Lineup
- Kyle Schwarber (DH)
- Trea Turner (SS)
- Bryce Harper (1B)
- Nick Castellanos (RF)
- Alec Bohm (3B)
- JT Realmuto (C)
- Austin Hays (OF)
- Edmundo Sosa (2B)
- Johan Rojas (CF)
It's been an up and down type of series for the Phillies. Leading in Game 1, only to have it stolen away late, and then returning the favor and snatching the series back from the grips of all-but-certain doom behind Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos.
Tonight Philadelphia will hand the ball to Aaron Nola, who finished the year on shaky footing. Nola has allowed multiple runs in all but one of the last six outings he's made. In that span, since the start of September, his ERA was 4.91 and his WHIP was 1.39.
Nola has the capacity to fix his mistakes with strikeouts, as 44 Ks in just 33 innings came with the poor ERA/WHIP in September.
The Mets were part of the bad month, lighting up Nola for six runs in less than five innings of work at Citizens Bank Park, but Philly fans will remember that Nola did shut the Mets out for a complete game last time he pitched at Citi, and I tend to think we are going to see the Citi Field version today.
If that CGSO in May is any lesson, Nola will attack the Mets with his curveball and rack up double-digit whiffs on pitches outside of the zone.
Philadelphia's hitters will have a tough task, but its exceptionally well-suited to face a lefty like Sean Manaea.
Harper, Castellanos, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Alex Bohm all have wRC+ numbers 20% or more higher than the MLB average when facing southpaws.
For Harper, Turner and Schwarber; that number is closer to 50% better. Look for them to be involved in a major way if the Phillies are going to do any damage at all.
Mets Betting Preview: Starting Lineup; Sean Manaea; Pete Alonso
Mets Starting Lineup
- Francisco Lindor (SS)
- Mark Vientos (3B)
- Brandon Nimmo (LF)
- Pete Alonso (1B)
- Jose Iglesias (2B)
- Jesse Winker (DH)
- Starling Marte (RF)
- Tyrone Taylor (CF)
- Francisco Alvarez (C)
Back and forth, high scoring affairs are always the toughest to lose. The Mets did almost everything right in Game 2, scoring six runs on the road against a tough Phillies bullpen, and had every chance to send this series to New York with a near-insurmountable 2-0 lead.
But that's not the scenario, and while it would have been nice to win both, you have to feel good about how the games in Philly went if you're a Mets fan, player, coach or executive. The games were competitive. Tonight's game will be, too.
Sean Manaea takes the mound for New York, and his last outing in the NL Wild Card against the Brewers was the first time the Mets lost in one of his appearances in nearly a month and a half.
Eight straight games from mid-August through September for Manaea were all New York wins. In that time frame, Manaea allowed a WHIP of just 0.67. That's just four base runners every six innings.
Manaea reached six strikeouts in all but two of those eight as well, failing to do so against weak teams like Miami and Chicago White Sox, who were hitting into weak contact more. He's been an effective innings-eater, and prior to the six-run blow up against the Brewers, he'd recorded at least 20 outs in those eight straight games.
Look for that form to return at home today, where in 93.2 innings of work he has a 104:26 K:BB ratio. From his history this season, the hitter he might struggle against tonight is Trea Turner, or maybe Austin Hays, if he works his way into the lineup.
The Mets hitting will continue to rely on big at-bats from rookie Mark Vientos, who looks to have cemented the hot corner role for the Mets for the foreseeable future.
Pete Alonso will also continue to put his name on the line. After delivering the heroics in Game 1, the Mets slugger will look to inch the team toward its first NLCS since 2015 with some big swings tonight.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Game 3 Betting Analysis
There's been almost no movement on the odds in this game.
An open of -112 saw a bit of life at -115 and is now back around -108 at the best price for the Phillies, but the consensus is still within a few cents of where it has been.
The total, too, has remained steady. A slight dip in price, perhaps, but the number of seven has not budged too much, even with the juice to the over.
My pick is going to be on the Under.
Citi Field on a cooler evening should be an advantageous spot for the pitchers to get that extra fraction of an inch of break to turn a line drive into a fly ball or a grounder, because the players' visual break identification will still be impacted from playing in Philly.
Plus, you have two starters with strong K:BB ratios and lower-than-average mistake rates. Add in rested bullpens and getting past seven runs might be difficult, and it's certainly worth a bet today for the price.
Pick: Under 7 +100 (Play to -110 | DraftKings)
Moneyline
The Mets have been a powerhouse at home this season, winning 46 of 81 games at Citi Field. But they've been on the road for a long time, last playing in New York against these Phillies on Sept. 22.
Since their last home game, the Mets went to Atlanta, Milwaukee, back to Atlanta, back to Milwaukee and then Philly again — all while clinching a playoff spot and knocking off a division winner. The Citi Field faithful are going to be ecstatic to support their Mets today, to say the least.
Philly has done well on the road this season, staying above .500 at 41-40, which is impressive considering the NL East sent three teams into the postseason. The Phillies won four of seven games against the Mets at Citi Field this year, but the three losses all came at the end of the year when teams were closer to final form.
My lean here, for this pivotal Game 3, is toward the Mets.
New York knows how to play in its home park, which has been one of the tougher places for runs to be scored this season. The wind will literally be taken out of all but the hardest of hit balls, and the winner will likely be crowned by a string of hits rather than a show of power.
I think the Mets are better equipped for this type of game, and also have the bullpen advantage tonight. As a Subway Series future holder, let's go Mets!
Pick: Lean Mets
Run Line (Spread)
The low expected total brings high-priced value to the +1.5 that already carried the weight of an almost even moneyline.
If you like your history, four of the teams' 13 regular-season games ended in one-run contests, but three of those were won by the road team who was likely more profitable as moneyline options. Game 2 of the NLDS was also a one-run game, and the Mets covered.
I tend to think there will be very little value on the run line tonight on either side, such that if you replayed this game 10,000 times, you'd simply lose money to the juice by playing this market.
That said, my lean is toward the Mets, as I do think they win and I'd rather give myself a plus-money opportunity on the chance that Philly gets shut down at Citi, which is likely the only reality for a Mets cover.
If you like correlated parlays, maybe take Mets -1.5 with Philly's team total alternate under for an advantageous angle.
Pick: Slight lean on the Mets run line
Over/Under
The totals at Citi Field are always low, but the market knows that and did a successful job of pricing this ballpark on the year.
Totals finished 42-39 O/U for the park, where runs can be hard to come by. Interesting, no? It's akin to unders being sharp at Coors Field because the consensus is that runs are scored in bunches there.
For this contest, though, the combination of bullpen rest and advantageous matchups makes the under alluring, even with the aforementioned market currents pushing the number lower. It would be wonderful to have the hook at 7.5, but, alas, we must make do.
The Phillies have gone over in eight of their last 10 games, but when favored to win, as they are today, are 56-68-2 O/U. This, to me, indicates that their expected success is likely correlated to their ability to limit opponents rather than win through massive power displays.
This game features pitchers who have been effective at limiting damage, and with the Citi Field crowd roaring, I like it to be a closely contested, low-scoring playoff affair.
Grab the Under 7 at even money.
Pick: Bet Under 7
Phillies Betting Trends
- The Phillies have gone over in eight of their last 10 games
- When favored to win, as they are today, the Phillies are 56-68-2 O/U
- The Phillies won four of seven games against the Mets at Citi Field this year
Mets Betting Trends
- The Mets won 46 of 81 games at Citi Field this season
- Totals finished at 42-39 O/U at New York's home park
- Pete Alonso is batting just .193 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season — tied for seventh worst in MLB– seventh Percentile. Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time since last season — fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB– 96th Percentile
- The Mets are 31-24 (.564) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .442
Mets vs Phillies Key Injuries
Mets Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 2B/OF Jeff McNeil | Right wrist fracture (10-day IL; Mets reportedly petitioning to allow him to play Arizona Fall League games) |
| RHP Paul Blackburn | Spinal fluid leak in back (15-day IL; out for season) |
Phillies Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Spencer Turnbull | Right lat strain (60-day IL; aiming for NLCS return) |
Phillies vs Mets Game 3 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024 |
| Time: | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | FS1; MLB.TV; Fubo; Sling TV |
