The New York Mets have an opportunity to eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS on Wednesday night at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FS1.
The Phillies went quiet in Game 3 and couldn't figure out Sean Manaea. The bad news for Philadelphia is that another lefty is taking the mound for the Mets in Jose Quintana. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Ranger Suarez, who, for a large stretch of the season, was one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young Award. However, the lineup and bullpen will have to improve if Philadelphia is going to force a Game 5.
Will the Mets book their ticket to the NLCS on Wednesday, or will the Phillies force a deciding game? My Phillies vs Mets prediction and pick for Game 4 is below.
Phillies vs Mets Predictions
- Phillies vs Mets picks: Phillies Moneyline (-115 | Play to -120)
My Phillies vs Mets best bet for NLDS Game 4 is on Phillies moneyline, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +150 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-101 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -181 |
Phillies vs Mets Game 4 Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | LHP Jose Quintana (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-8 | W-L | 10-10 |
| 3.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.46/3.59 | ERA /xERA | 3.75/4.49 |
| 3.37/3.26 | FIP / xFIP | 4.56/4.44 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 51.9% | GB% | 47.4% |
| 82 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
Brad Cunningham’s Phillies vs Mets Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Will Offense Wake Up?
Suarez has had a bad ending to the season as his xFIP was well above 4.00 for the month of September. He faced the Mets in his second-to-last start of the season and gave up five hits, two runs and three walks over five innings.
Suarez is a difficult pitcher to prepare for because he has a ton of different pitches in his arsenal and throws each of them in a specific part of the zone. As you can see below, he utilizes the run on his sinker to throw inside to righties, throws his fastball away, then throws his changeup and curveball in different parts of the bottom of the zone.
(Image via Baseball Savant)
Overall, Suarez has a 3.59 xERA and a 3.26 xFIP. Also, all four of the pitches listed above are allowing under a .300 xwOBA. He actually has pretty good numbers when facing a lineup for the third time this season (2.93 xFIP), but this is an elimination game, so we will see what Rob Thomson decides to do.
The Phillies bullpen hasn't been good during the postseason, but can't continue to be this bad game after game. The Phillies had the fifth-best xFIP in baseball this season and fourth-best K-BB ratio.
The offense is going to face another lefty after struggling against Manaea, but this should be a much more favorable matchup because Quintana doesn't have nearly the stuff Manaea does. Plus, they have been really good against left-handed pitching this season with a 118 wRC+, the third-best mark in baseball.
New York Mets Betting Preview: What Can We Expect From Quintana?
Quintana has been lights out since the start of September. In his past five starts, he has allowed a total of two earned runs, with one of those starts coming against the Phillies. In that outing, he shut them out over seven innings.
For most of the season, Quintana has struggled with his command and hasn't been able to generate a high number of whiffs. In September, he had his highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate, which is why he put up such great numbers. However, at this stage of his career, he has below-average stuff.
Overall for the season, Quintana has an 83 Stuff+ rating with his fastball and sinker averaging under 91 mph. The Phillies are second in baseball against left-handed sinkers and fastballs, so it's going to be a tough matchup for Quintana.
Also, how long of a leash will Quintana get in this game? He was allowed to work through the order for a third time against the Brewers despite the matchup not being great, but with Manaea being able to pitch into the eighth inning, the Mets bullpen is fully rested, which means Quintana may not last very long in this game.
The Mets bullpen has been hit or miss throughout the playoffs and down the stretch of the regular season they had some real problems with their command. Over the last 30 days of the regular season, they had the second-worst Location+ rating and were also bottom 10 in walk rate. Those control issues played a big part in Game 2 of this series, when the Mets gave up four runs in the eighth and ninth innings to lose the game.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's now or never for the Phillies and I think they have a pretty big starting pitching edge in Game 4.
Sure, if we are going by how each starter pitched down the stretch, then this would be a pretty even game, but Suarez is clearly the better pitcher over a large sample size.
The Phillies offense should have a much better matchup against Quintana than they did against Manaea. Not only are they the second-best team in baseball against sinkers and fastballs, but against those two pitches, when they are 91 mph or slower, the Phillies have a .406 xwOBA and 25 barrels, the most in baseball.
The Phillies bullpen has blown up in three straight games in this series, which is very uncharacteristic and something I don't think will continue. Sure, the Mets offense is on fire, but a top-five bullpen will eventually figure it out.
I think the Phillies are a little undervalued in Game 4 because of that starting pitching edge. I have Philadelphia projected at -132, so I like the value on them at -115.
Pick: Phillies -115 via BetMGM
Moneyline
I'm betting the Phillies moneyline at -115 in NLDS Game 4.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the Phillies vs. Mets run line.
Over/Under
I'm not betting the Phillies vs. Mets over/under.
Phillies vs Mets Weather
