The Philadelphia Phillies (8-5) and St. Louis Cardinals (6-7) clash at Busch Stadium for a Saturday matinee. First pitch is set for 2:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH+ and FanDuel Sports Midwest.
The Phillies have hit a slight rough patch, dropping their last two games and getting shutout on Friday night. But they'll have ace left-hander Cristoper Sanchez on the hill on Saturday as they try to even up the series. The Cardinals go for the series win with Miles Mikolas.
Check out my Phillies vs Cardinals prediction and pick for Saturday below, plus my same-game parlay, public betting trends, weather forecast and more.
Phillies vs Cardinals Parlay Predictions
- Kyle Schwarber Home Run
- Cristopher Sanchez 7+ Strikeouts
- Luken Baker 2+ Total Bases
- Parlay Odds: +3900 (DraftKings)
Schwarber is just 6-for-31 versus Miles Mikolas in his career, but he's always capable of drilling a bomb.
Meanwhile, Sanchez sat down nine Dodgers via the strikeout in his last outing and looks totally dominant, but Cardinals lefty-masher Luken Baker could be a threat with his nearly 200 wRC+ against southpaws.
Phillies vs Cardinals Odds
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8 +100o / -120u | -170 |
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8 +100o / -120u | +143 |
- Phillies vs Cardinals Moneyline: Phillies -170, Cardinals +143
- Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under: 8 (+100o / -120u)
- Phillies vs Cardinals Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+100), Cardinals +1.5 (-120)
Phillies vs Cardinals Probable Starting Pitchers
Phillies at Cardinals Preview, Predictions
Cardinals Betting Preview
The Cardinals will look for a strong start from Miles Mikolas, who allowed 11 hits and eight runs in 2 1/3 innings versus the Red Sox. He’s very high on my fadeable pitchers list, and facing an offense with the weaponry that the Phillies have won’t make it easier for the veteran.
Mikolas is a soft-tossing righty, clocking in at 92 mph on his fastball, and strikes out just 4.5 per nine innings. I won’t even chalk that up to a small sample, as he struck out just 6.4 per nine last year while posting an ERA over 5.20.
Where the Cardinals thrive is offensively, ranking fourth with a 123 wRC+. However, I’m less optimistic about the Cardinals in this game due to facing a lefty, especially one of Cristopher Sanchez’s caliber. The Cardinals boast a 131 wRC+ against southpaws, but Ivan Herrera’s 388 wRC+ won’t factor in since he’s injured.
Moreover, two of the stalwarts in St. Louis’s lineup, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan, are non-factors against lefties. Burleson is a strict platoon option while Donovan is a shell of himself against lefties.
Some regression could also sting the Cardinals' offense, as they have a .328 BABIP — the second highest in baseball. Typically, a super high BABIP will eventually lead to the results turning when some soft hit balls stop finding holes.
Phillies Betting Preview
I’m still a big believer in Cristopher Sanchez turning in another All-Star-level campaign. Sanchez is due for some good luck as his ERA sits at 4.09 and a 4.70 FIP with a 3.02 xERA and 2.34 xFIP. The interesting part about Sanchez is his GB% is down to 44.4% (down from 57% last year) while lifting his K/9 from 7.58 to 13.09.
Of course, Sanchez won’t strike out 13 batters per nine all year, but he looks like a totally different pitcher. I expect him to bounce back and be among the top pitchers in the National League. He only throws three pitches, relying on a sinker over 50% of the time, with a changeup at 32% and a slider at 16%. Given his reliance on the sinker, Sanchez should return to his ground ball roots.
The Phillies have the proper attack to destroy a soft-tosser like Mikolas. Philadelphia owns the top walk rate (12.7%) in MLB and strikes out just 21.7% of the time. That'll make Mikolas either give the Phillies pitches to hit or nibble and allow their patient bats to take pitches. If a pitcher throws in the low 90s nowadays, it's paramount to have pinpoint command, otherwise 91 will end up going 105 off the bat. They have a 118 wRC+, so they'll give Mikolas fits.
Starting the game with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper against a pitcher who just surrendered eight runs feels like a brilliant sign for the Phillies.
I'm hoping Sanchez provides a strong six or seven innings to limit how much the Phillies' bullpen goes. They have a poor bullpen, ranking 16th in bullpen ERA, and have just two relievers — closer Jose Alvarado and lefty Matt Strahm, who have an ERA below 3.00.
Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Predictably, the Phillies enter as favorites.
I don't love taking ML's above -145 and I foresee Sanchez limiting the Cardinals bats, while Mikolas gets chased after another ugly outing. So, I feel comfortable grabbing +110 on the -1.5 run line on the road team.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 +110 (play to +100)
Moneyline
If the ML dips to -140, then take the Phillies
Run Line (Spread)
I like plus money with the Phillies
Over/Under
I will not be betting on Game Totals for this matchup.
Phillies vs Cardinals Betting Trends
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 3-4 in their road games against the spread
Cardinals Betting Trends
- Cardinals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Cardinals' 7 last games at home
- Cardinals hitters are slugging .625 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .365
