The Philadelphia Phillies (82-56) go for a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays (67-73) on Wednesday afternoon at Rogers Centre. First pitch for this MLB interleague finale is set for 3:07 p.m. ET on MLB Network and ESPN+.
Cristopher Sánchez has been spectacular for the Phillies this year. The 27-year-old lefty has great offspeed stuff and is elite when it comes to keeping the ball on the ground. His opponent on Wednesday will be Bowden Francis, a highly touted right-hander for the Blue Jays. Francis may not have elite velocity, but he has a great arsenal and limits both walks and hard contact.
The Phillies enter Wednesday on a three-game winning streak and in possession of a seven-game lead in the NL East. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are eight games back of the third AL wild-card spot.
Since neither the Phillies nor the Blue Jays have been above average at the dish lately, the under could be in play. That leads me to my Phillies vs Blue Jays predictions and picks — and the latest odds — for Wednesday, September 4.
Phillies-Blue Jays Predictions
- Phillies-Blue Jays Picks: Under 8.5 to 7.5
My Phillies-Blue Jays best bet is on the under, where I see value at 8.5. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +130 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -155 |
- Phillies-Blue Jays Moneyline: Phillies -130 | Blue Jays +110
- Phillies-Blue Jays Over/Under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Phillies-Blue Jays Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+130) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Phillies-Blue Jays
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Bowden Francis (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-9 | W-L | 8-3 |
| 4.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.49/3.63 | ERA /xERA | 3.66/3.58 |
| 2.94/3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.26/4.02 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 13.7% | K-BB% | 17.9% |
| 58.7% | GB% | 34% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Phillies at Blue Jays Preview, Predictions
Phillies Betting Preview: Another Strong Sanchez Start?
Sánchez owns a 3.49 ERA and a 3.63 xERA. He holds an Average Exit Velocity under 97.5 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 86th percentile. He gets hitters to chase at an elite rate and keeps the ball on the ground often (97th percentile). On top of all that, he has a walk rate of only 5.7%. He has had a few tough outings over the past couple of months, but straightened out those issues in most of his August starts.
The Phillies have trounced lefties, but only own a 97 wRC+ off of righties in the past month. They have a 6.3% walk rate and a 21.5% strikeout rate. However, they only have four bats above a .320 xwOBA and there is a relatively steep drop off to the bottom of the batting order. Since Francis has been a lockdown starter lately, the Phillies may not string together too many baserunners.
Philadelphia's bullpen has been above average with a 3.87 xFIP in the past month. The relievers have a 24.3% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate.
Blue Jays Betting Preview: Will Francis Stay Hot?
Francis has a 3.66 ERA against a 3.58 xERA and an Average Exit Velocity under 89 mph. His strikeout rate is 24% with a 6.1% walk rate. Since Philadelphia hasn't hit righties well of late, Francis can potentially build upon the success that led to him posting a 1.05 ERA over 34 1/3 innings in August.
The Blue Jays have a 98 wRC+, a 9.6% walk rate and a 24% strikeout rate over the past month. That said, Toronto only has one hitter above a .320 xwOBA. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is just beneath that mark, but the rest of the lineup is pretty downtrodden. In addition, the Jays carry the highest ground-ball rate off of lefties over the past month (53.4%). That plays right into Sánchez’s game-plan, so he could pitch deep into this matchup.
In relief, the Blue Jays have a 4.03 xFIP with a 21.8% strikeout rate and a 8.6% walk rate.
Phillies-Blue Jays Prediction & Over/Under Betting Analysis
This game has the makings of a pitcher’s duel. Sánchez and Francis are pretty evenly matched, and neither team is crushing pitchers of these makeups lately. Look for Sánchez to keep the ball on the ground and for Francis to continue his August dominance. Bet the under down to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8.5 to 7.5
Moneyline
I'll pass on the moneyline in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not going to bet the run line here.
Over/Under
I'm taking the Phillies vs. Blue Jays under.
Phillies-Blue Jays Betting Trends
- 77% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the Phils on the moneyline.
- 96% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the over.
- 74% of the bets and 66% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
Phillies Trends
- Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Phillies' 72 last games at home
Blue Jays Trends
- Blue Jays are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Blue Jays are 43-29 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
Phillies-Blue Jays Weather Forecast
