The Phillies and Nationals will meet for game three of its series in Philadelphia after the Phillies took the first two games.
The pitching matchup is a duel of two southpaws who were first-half heroes — Cristopher Sanchez on the Phillies' side and fireballing strikeout machine, MacKenzie Gore on the Nationals' side.
Philadelphia enters the game as -205 moneyline favorites, while the Nationals come in as +170 underdogs.
Read below for my Phillies vs. Nationals prediction.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | +180 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -215 |
Phillies vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | LHP MacKenzie Gore (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-8 | W-L | 7-10 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 3.63/3.76 | ERA /xERA | 4.50/4.57 |
| 2.76/3.23 | FIP / xFIP | 3.70/4.14 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.57 |
| 3.1 | K-BB% | 2.5 |
| 58 | GB% | 37.2 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 102 | Location+ | 98 |
Phillies vs Nationals Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Washington Can't Hit Lefties
It's been a tale of two seasons for Gore, who looked the part of an All-Star through May, posting a 2.90 ERA with a similar FIP. Since then, Gore has been pitching to a 7.67 ERA and 2.18 WHIP in his past seven outings — less than 30 innings during that span.
There are some positive indicators of future success since Gore's FIP (3.70) is nearly a full run lower than his ERA (4.50). Maybe that means Gore gets it rolling, but it all comes down to throwing strikes, which Gore doesn't do consistently — walking 3.9 batters per nine. He issued six free passes against the Mets last Sunday.
The Nationals offense has struggled in general, but more so against lefty pitchers — posting an 87 wRC+, which is seventh worst in MLB this year.
Washington walks 7% of the time against lefties and strikes out 20% of the time — neither is bad, but hitting for slugging is its kryptonite. The Nats have accounted for just 19 homers against lefties — the lowest in MLB. That speaks to the lineup structure, though.
In the Nationals' never-ending hunt for power, just two hitters with more than 15 home runs this year — left-handed hitting infielders CJ Abrams (17) and Luis Garcia Jr (14). Typically, a pair of young infielders with decent power is a good thing, but not for the Nationals in this instance. Abrams has just three of his 17 homers against lefties and Garcia has zero versus lefties. This team can't hit for power against lefties, and if they had anyone capable of clocking a few homers in between Abrams and Lopez, it would make both better.
The lineup lacks a big bopper that can induce fear into a pitcher and change the score with one swing. They have proven they don't mind taking a more passive approach and slapping the ball around with speedy batters across the lineup.
While it's more of an archaic offensive approach offense, it might work against a pitcher wanting to induce contact
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Will Sanchez Return to Form?
That pitcher is 2024 All-Star selection Christopher Sanchez, who hasn't pitched anything like an All-Star in his past seven starts. He's pitching to a 5.36 ERA over his past seven outings.
On the positive side, Sanchez's FIP is around 3.20 in that span, which likely means he'll get back on track soon enough. Sanchez also ranks in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity, 86th in barrel percentage and 82nd in hard hit percentage. I don't buy into Sanchez's rough stretch being more than a temporary roadblock. He gave up seven runs in his last outing against the Diamondbacks — one of the hottest offenses in MLB — and the Nats offense isn't on the same stratosphere as the Snakes.
Life as a sinker-baller can be unfair. Even if a pitcher generates soft contact, it could lead to a hit.
After an offensive lull in the middle of July, the Phillies' offense has gotten back on track. Philadelphia has a 115 wRC+ in August, the sixth-highest in baseball. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with a 190 wRC+ in the last two weeks, while Bryce Harper (163) and Nick Castellanos (154) have joined in on the fun.
The scary part for fans of opposing NL teams? Trea Turner's slump is now prolonged, as he's hitting below .200 with a dreadful wRC+ for over a month. Between his lengthy injury, Turner was among the most consistent hitters in the sport.
I wouldn't want to face this Phillies lineup in general, but more so once Turner starts hitting again. Turner's lengthy track record of success should be enough to keep opponents weary of his hitting ability, but he can make pitchers pay if they choose to attack him rather than others behind him.
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm banking on the Nationals' inability to hit lefties, paired with Gore's struggles, leading to the Phillies covering the -1.5 run line at -105 odds. The Phillies covered the the spread two days ago with ease and should've covered the run line in game two — if it weren't for a ninth inning collapse.
I don't see this game staying as close throughout, allowing for potential breathing room if another bullpen malfunction occurs. If the Phillies lineup is patient enough, Gore will lead himself into allowing some runs.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 at +100 |
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Moneyline
If the moneyline (currently sitting at -205 in favor of Philly) gets to a better number than -200, then I'm more than happy taking the Phillies here. Otherwise, it's a stay away spot from me since the return on investment just isn't high enough to warrant taking the Phillies, despite being a vastly superior team.
Baseball is just such a strange sport. We saw the 29-win White Sox who went more than three weeks without winning a game beat the Yankees, who leads MLB in wins. Strange things can occur, so avoid taking bloated MLs.
Run Line (Spread)
Phillies -1.5 is my official pick for the game.
Over/Under
I'll pass on the total. I hope Sanchez gets on track again, but I don't want to get caught on the under if his struggles continue.
