Phillies vs. Angels Odds, Pick
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 9 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +114 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 9 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -137 |
The backslide for the Angels continued on into the weekend, where they were swept at home by the Minnesota Twins. Now, they'll face an even tougher test on Monday as they aim for just their second win in 12 games.
The Phillies' offense is alive and kicking, leading them to a four-game winning streak, and will take on the struggling Griffin Canning in hopes of keeping their run alive.
Is there any way in here for the home underdogs? Let's get into my Phillies vs. Angels pick and prediction for Monday.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez back to the hill on Monday to continue what's been an incredibly positive start to the season. The lefty stands at just 1-3 through five starts but has kept his ERA under three runs with a spicy 2.74 xERA.
His expected ERA would be even lower if not for a high 10% walk rate, something that's somewhat stunning considering he walked just 4% of the batters he faced in a full 2023 season which saw him throw 99 1/3 innings. It's not exactly inflated by one bad start, either, considering he walked three against the Nationals, Pirates and Reds over his last four outings. That'll be something to monitor here as he steps to the team ranked just 24th in walk rate.
When the ball's been coming back into play, good things have been happening. Sanchez has pitched to one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball at 66.2% and as a result owns a low .220 Expected Batting Average with an even-better .285 Expected Slugging. That, in chorus with an elevated 25.5% strikeout rate has made him a weapon.
Offensively, Philly has brought itself up to ninth in wRC+, sporting somewhat positive strikeout and walk rates and driving itself with a sixth-ranked .163 Isolated Power. Hitting the ball in the air is of great importance to this team.
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Los Angeles Angels
Griffin Canning is another 27-year-old arm hoping to take the step forward that Sanchez has taken in 2024, but to this point he's done little to inspire confidence. Sure, his 7.50 ERA is perhaps a bit inflated when you consider his 4.89 xERA, but unlike Sanchez it's not easy to just point to walks and say things are generally fine when he's watching the ball come back into play.
Canning has allowed a barrel rate near 10% for a third straight season, and his xSLG is all the way up to a terrible .494 from .421 a season ago. He's become an even more extreme fly ball pitcher at 35.8%, which is over 12 points higher than average, and with a low 18.2% strikeout rate those problems on contact have become exacerbated. He also pitches in a friendly home park for hitters, which is where Monday's game will be set.
The Angels, like the Phillies, aim to hit the ball in the air and have produced a very acceptable .140 ISO when you consider how cold this team is running. The biggest weakness of this team has come in the plate discipline department, where they're striking out almost 25% of the time to just an 8% walk rate, and they've also had to deal with a somewhat large, though predictable, injury to Anthony Rendon who was tearing the cover off the ball in the leadoff spot just prior to going down.
Phillies vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a spot of bother for the Angels both in the pitching matchup and offensively. Sanchez will keep the ball from traveling through the air and has produced above-average strikeout numbers which should do well to suffocate any power they have left at the moment. On top of that, with just an 8% walk rate it's hard to see the lefty running into the same issues with walks he's had over his last four starts.
On the flip side, the Phillies should be ready to tee off on one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball in a generous home run park, and with few strikeouts coming from LA's starter those issues on contact should be multiplied on Monday.
I'll happily lay the run here with the Phillies in what should be a beatdown.
