Phillies vs. Astros Game 6 Odds
| Phillies Odds | +122 |
| Astros Odds | -144 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
This World Series has been like a heavyweight title fight. Each team has taken their opponent's best shot and countered with one of their own. After splitting the first two games, the Phillies took control of the series in Game 3 as they bashed multiple homers.
However, the next night would be a complete contrast as Cristian Javier and the Astros bullpen would combine for the second no-hitter in World Series history. Houston's fine pitching would continue as Justin Verlander finally found his postseason footing and delivered a solid performance to give his team a crucial Game 5 victory.
Now that you're all caught up, the season is hanging in the balance tonight. Houston is just one win away from baseball immortality, although we should not expect the Phillies to go down without a fight.
The pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2 of this series as Framber Valdez will be up against Zack Wheeler. Valdez took this first meeting in style as he set down nine batters via strikes and allowed just one run. The same cannot be said for Wheeler, as he was hit hard, and unless he makes a drastic adjustment, we may see similar results tonight.
Phillies In Trouble vs. Valdez
The Phillies bats were silenced in Game 2 by Valdez, and if you look at it from a matchup perspective, it should be surprising. Philly was one of the best teams against left-handed pitchers this season, as it finished sixth in wRC+, fifth in OPS and fourth in wOBA. However, as we've seen this postseason, Valdez is not your typical lefty.
Valdez has been dynamite for Houston during the postseason. Through three starts, he has a 1.42 ERA and an 11.37 strikeout per nine rate. Plus, there are multiple indicators that his success will continue tonight.
First, his postseason FIP of 1.53 is as good as it gets. It shows just how sharp he's been. We've seen him pitch out of jams, work around walks and get critical strikeouts when needed. An even closer look reveals just how dominant he should be against this Phillies lineup.
In Game 2, Philly barely touched him, as he has a CSW rate of 33 percent. Much of those whiffs were generated by his devastating curveball as the Phils swung and missed at it 38 percent of the time. While that number may seem high, it's actually in line with what Valdez has done against Philly in his career.
The Phillies have a combined 58 at-bats against Valdez and are hitting just .155 as a team. On top of that, they have not made much contact either, as they also hold a 38 percent strikeout rate and 31.3 percent whiff rate.
That amount of swing and miss provides a bleak outlook for them, as their xBA is .175. However, if Valdez is locked in again tonight, we should see an identical performance to the one he had in Game 2.
Wheeler Needs to Adjust Arsenal
As for how the Astros will fare with the Commissioner's Trophy just a win away, well, that is all dependent on which version of Wheeler we see for Philadelphia. Wheeler was battered in Game 2 as 16 of the 18 balls put in play off him had an exit velocity of 84 mph or higher.
Those are the results that you get when you go against the strength of this Astros lineup. Houston is one of, if not the best fastball-hitting lineups in baseball. The Astros have 10 guys on their roster that had a positive run value against fastballs this season. Yordan Alvarez led the way, with a staggering hard-hit rate of 71.8 percent against fastballs.
Unfortunately for Wheeler, those numbers eliminate his best weapon. Wheeler threw his fastball 60 percent of the time this season, and we saw a similar usage in Game 2 as his four-seam and sinker made up 54 percent of his pitches.
We saw Aaron Nola make the adjustment in both of his outings, as he was able to turn to his breaking ball more often to generate outs. Wheeler must have a similar adjustment tonight, or we will have a repeat of his last outing with possibly even worse results.
Phillies-Astros Pick
Put plain and simple; this is a terrible matchup for Wheeler. While the adjustment for him to make is clear, it is much easier said than done. His slider was hit just as often in his last outing, so he does not have any success to build off of tonight. I expect the Astros to punish any fastballs left in the zone while Valdez spins his curveball past the Phillies' bats.
One last thing that has to be factored in is the bullpens. The travel day gave each team a rest, and that only helps the Astros more, as their backend guys will be ready to lock this one down if they have the lead.
All of this is why the Houston Astros will be crowned champions tonight.
Pick: Houston ML -144
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