Well, this could be it. The Houston Astros are just one win away from being crowned World Series champions. While the Phillies will pull out all the stops to force a game seven, they are in a tough spot tonight.
Houston should close out this series, So see how you can back them in two additional ways with our top player props.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Zack Wheeler over 4.5 hits allowed (+120)
Odds via BetRivers
If you read my game guide to this matchup, you have a pretty good idea of how I see this outing going for Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is a fastball-heavy pitcher, and the Astros are perhaps the best fastball-hitting team in the majors.
We already saw how much damage this team can do against Wheeler in Game 2 of this series. The Astros put 18 balls in play. Sixteen of them had an average exit velocity of 84 mph or higher. However, it was not just the fastball and sinker getting hit; the Astros also smashed his slider. His slider has an average exit velocity of 97 mph.
It will be hard for Wheeler to reinvent himself for this outing. His fastball usage is a bad matchup against this lineup, and the Astros can get over this total even if he has a shorter leash tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 hits allowed (+120)
Action Labs Grade: 8
Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+150)
Odds via BetRivers
This play correlates with our first prop, as Kyle Tucker will do damage tonight against Wheeler. First off, he's had an excellent series as he got things started with a bang in Game 1 and has added on two more hits since then.
Three of Tucker's four hits series have been for extra bases, and his expected stats point to him adding another one tonight. He has only seen Wheeler three times, but of the two balls he put in play, the average exit velocity on them was 98.8 mph. That gives him an xBA of .167 but an xSLG of .603.
If the small sample size is insufficient, let's look at how Tucker did against Wheeler's arsenal. He was second on the Astros in run value against fastballs as he had a 47 percent hard-hit rate. He also had a positive run value against sinkers as he finished with a hard-hit rate of 46.8 percent against them this year. Then lastly, he destroyed sliders as he had a run value of 13 against them. He hit them hard 37.5 percent of the time.
Tucker has excelled against the three most likely pitches he will see from Zack Wheeler tonight. The odds are if he connects, it will be for extra bases.
One last note on this total. The consensus total is 0.5, and while that is fine, we are getting much better line value on the over 1.5. So be sure to shop around to find a 1.5.
Pick: Over 1.5 total bases (+150)
Action Labs Grade: 9
