Phillies vs Braves odds opened with Atlanta favored over its division rival, Philadelphia.
The Phillies clinched their playoff spot and positioning well in advance of the end of the season and locked themselves into the No. 4 seed in the NL playoff field. They defeated the Marlins in two games in the NL Wild Card Round.
The Braves were the best team in baseball virtually all season, clinching the NL East with nearly a month to go in the regular season.
The Braves, who will host Games 1, 2 and potentially 5, opened as -220 favorites to advance to the NLCS at FanDuel. The road Phillies are +176 underdogs.
Below, you'll find the full schedule for this series, as well as a breakdown of both teams and how they got to this point.
All odds cited below via FanDuel. For updated odds on every series throughout the postseason, be sure to visit our MLB futures page. For individual game odds throughout the postseason at a variety of sportsbooks, visit our MLB odds page.
Phillies vs. Braves NLDS Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 7, 6 p.m. ET, TBS
- Game 2: Monday, October 9, 6 p.m. ET TBS
- Game 3: Wednesday, October 11, Time TBD, TBS
- Game 4: Thursday, October 12, Time TBD, TBS (if necessary)
- Game 5: Saturday, October 14, Time TBD, TBS (if necessary)
Philadelphia Phillies
- World Series Odds: +8
- Pennant Odds: +380
- Regular Season Record: 90-72
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 105 (11th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.03 (5th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 4.06 (7th)
How They Got Here
The Phillies are almost a carbon copy of last year’s team, but are now equipped with more pitching depth and better defense. They played below .500 for the first two months of the season, but were one of baseball’s elite from June forward.
Unlike last year, the Phillies didn’t have to grind through September to secure a final playoff spot in the final days of the season. Instead, the Phillies cruised to the No. 4 seed and secured home field advantage for the Wild Card Round.
Offense
It’s been a rollercoaster for the Phillies lineup in 2023. Trea Turner had an OPS below .700 for the first 100 games of the season, but transformed into an elite player in August and September. Despite the early struggle, he still finished with north of 25 homers and an above-league-average wRC+. Nick Castellanos has been the Phillies most consistent slugger from start to finish, though he had a major post All-Star slump. Castellanos is hitting lower in the order now, behind youngsters Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, who have excellent hit tools and are tough to strikeout.
The Phillies will go as far as Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can take them. Harper went more than a month without a homer as he struggled to lift the ball and find his power stroke. Even despite the poor stretch post elbow surgery, by his standards, Harper will still finish the season with a strong slash line. Schwarber is an unconventional leadoff hitter because of his low batting average, but his elite plate discipline means only Juan Soto walked more in MLB. Schwarber’s power and patience is daunting in front of Turner and Harper at the top of the lineup.
Rotation
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola will be expected to carry the Phillies in the playoffs. Wheeler has been as good as ever with a 3.18 xERA and a 21.9 K-BB%. Nola has seen a drop in his strikeout rate and has also struggled to keep the ball in the yard. Nola’s 4.46 ERA and 3.74 xERA are both a full run worse than last season.
One benefit for Nola is that he’ll make his first two starts at Citizens Bank Park, where he’s been considerably better in his career. He’ll also be on extra rest. Behind the two aces, I’d expect Ranger Suarez to fill the role as the No. 3 starter, but to have a short leash because of the Phillies bullpen depth.
Bullpen
The Phillies entered last year with three reliable relievers – Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez and starter Zach Eflin. Now, there’s no bullpen in MLB with better versatility and pure stuff than the Phillies.
There’s questions if they’ll throw enough strikes — Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Alvarado and Dominguez have concerns — but they have three decently reliable lefties and the emergence of Jeff Hoffman Orion and Kerkering (elite Stuff+ metrics) provides manager Rob Thomson with a ton of options to shorten games.
—Anthony Dabbundo
Bet Phillies vs. Braves at FanDuel
Atlanta Braves
- World Series Odds: +260
- Pennant Odds: +130
- Regular Season Record: 104-58
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 125 (1st)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.18 (12th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.98 (4th)
How They Got Here
Atlanta got here by dominating from start to finish. Some sportsbooks actually had the Mets as the NL East favorite entering the season, but Atlanta has held the division lead for every game except one, the third game of the season. The Braves ran away with this division, winning it for the sixth straight year, and finishing with the best record in baseball. The Braves enter the postseason as the World Series favorite and are rightly the team to beat.
Offense
Does anything really need to be said here? I would love to see anybody argue that this isn’t the best lineup in the league top to bottom. Ronald Acuna Jr. ran away with the NL MVP as he posted the first 40 homer, 70 stolen base season in MLB history. He led the league in hits, runs and stolen bases, while his teammate Matt Olson led the league in home runs and RBI. Atlanta finished atop the league in runs, average, OPS, wRC+ and wOBA. The Braves hit over 50 more home runs than the next closest team and all nine starters have a wRC+ above 100.
Rotation
If there is anywhere the Braves have questions, it is with their starting rotation. Specifically, the depth of their rotation. Spencer Strider is still an elite pitcher and will get the ball in Game 1 after leading the league in strikeouts. After him will be Bryce Elder, who severely regressed in the second half. Max Fried and Charlie Morton both recently landed on the Injured List and are questionable for the NLDS. Fried is expected back sooner than Morton and Kyle Wright will likely join the rotation to fill the holes.
Bullpen
Atlanta’s bullpen has been a concern in years past, but the Braves have done a great job strengthening that group. The Braves are in the top three in the league in bullpen xFIP and have one of the league’s best K-BB%. Closer Raisel Iglesias has been terrific and Atlanta has a deep group with A.J. Minter, Kirby Yates, Joe Jimenez and Jesse Chavez all sporting an ERA below 3.75. When the rotation is fully healthy, the Braves will likely move a guy like Wright to the bullpen for long-relief help.
—Mike Ianniello
