Phillies vs Braves Odds & Prediction
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+114 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -185 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +154 |
The Philadelphia Phillies spent the Fourth of July getting their rear ends kicked by the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, 10-2. It was a strange day for the Phillies, as they got off to an early 2-0 lead, and Cristopher Sanchez looked unhittable through the first three innings.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves also suffered a series loss to the San Francisco Giants on Thursday evening. They found themselves in a similar situation as the Phillies when they got off to an early lead with Charlie Morton looking fantastic through the first three innings before suffering a 4-2 loss.
Now, a big three-game series is set to begin on Friday night when the Phillies head to Atlanta. It will be Aaron Nola against Max Fried for what should be a a terrific pitching duel at Truist Park.
Phillies vs Braves odds have the Braves as -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (-110o/-110u). You can find my Phillies vs Braves prediction on the F5 moneyline below.
Philadelphia Phillies
Unsurprisingly, Nola has faced Atlanta a bunch throughout his big-league career. The current Braves projected to be in tonight's lineup are hitting .265 lifetime over 327 at-bats.
Nola is having another fine season anchoring the top of the rotation, sporting a 3.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The strikeout numbers have slightly dipped, but it's not drastic enough to have any sort of concern.
The key for the Phils tonight is their offense. It’s not a surprise they're a shell of themselves without JT Realmuto and Bryce Harper, but those are two major pieces that make their lineup much more balanced.
The good news is that the projected lineup tonight has put up fantastic numbers against Fried in the past. They're hitting .313 over 115 ABs with 10 extra-base hits.
Many people are ready to sell the Phillies despite their terrific record solely due to their injury situation. I wouldn’t count my chickens before they hatch, especially tonight.
Atlanta Braves
Last night was a peculiar game for the Braves, as it seemed like they were ready to knock Giants starter Logan Webb out of the game early in the first inning. However, those early runs would be the only damage the offense would do all night.
Tonight, the offense has a chance to bounce back against a familiar foe in Nola.
If Orlando Arcia returns tonight, it would be huge for Atlanta, but there's no word on whether or not he will be back from his ailing toothache.
The good news is that the Braves' ace is on the mound tonight to help out the offense.
Fried has been terrific thus far in 2024, and his underlying metrics back that up. He has been the king of soft contact and sports a remarkable 59% ground-ball rate.
The only issue for Fried is that the Phillies have also put up excellent numbers against him in the past, so he may be prone to allowing a few runs early in the game.
If Fried dominates and the offense can scrap some runs across the board early, I think the Braves will cruise to a victory. But I don't have enough confidence in that belief to lay down a wager on them.
Phillies vs Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
I will fade the public and the red-hot Fried with a Phillies F5 bet.
There's a lot to like about the Phillies offense, and I have a feeling they're going to be fired up to bounce back after yesterday's shellacking.
Nola is capable of laying a stinker here and there, but the Braves' numbers against him aren't too terrifying to shy away from. However, the Phils' bullpen has been a disaster over the last month, and I give the Braves' pen a slight edge over them.
For that reason, I'd rather focus on the first half of the ballgame so we don't have to sweat out a late bullpen meltdown.
