Phillies vs. Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | +140 |
| Brewers Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-125 / +105) |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Locked in a tight race for a playoff spot, every game counts at the moment for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Clinching a series win over the mighty Milwaukee Brewers with a victory Wednesday would put the Phillies five games over .500, and help them avoid falling three games back in the wild card. It's not going to be easy, with Freddy Peralta on the other side of this pitching matchup, and it might be even more difficult with Kyle Gibson going for Philadelphia.
That said, is the value on the team with more to play for here or will Peralta be too much to overcome? Let's take a deeper look into this contest.
Philadelphia Firmly in NL Postseason Mix
It simply doesn't get any weirder than the Phillies right now, who are just two games back in the NL wild-card race and 2.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East despite playing some so-so ball.
They have hit brilliantly over the last couple of weeks, but after building up some momentum with six consecutive wins combined against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals, they dropped two of three in Miami. Philadelphia might be the hardest team to get a read on in all of baseball.
With that said, the numbers do flatter the Phillies. They have a 119 wRC+ in the last 14 days, which ranks sixth in the league, and struck out in just 16.4% of their plate appearances, demonstrating great discipline.
Further highlighting how good these at-bats have been is an 81% contact rate, which ranks second to only the Astros over those two weeks. While Philadelphia hasn't made a wealth of quality contact, it can still claim an impressive .210 ISO as well.
Despite losing Rhys Hoskins, this offense is performing very well at the moment, which has put the onus all on the pitching staff here. As long as things don't blow up as they did in Tuesday's 10-0 loss, the Phillies have generally been able to get by on the strength of their bats.
That's why the thought of sending Kyle Gibson to the mound is somewhat scary. He is coming off a start where he allowed eight earner runs over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the Marlins, and over the last month or two he's begin to show some cracks.
He had a 6.26 ERA in July and wound up allowing six runs against the Dodgers in an August start before beginning September with that aforementioned clunker in Miami. It's been a topsy-turvy second half, but the one constant seems to be issues in the walk department.
Milwaukee Easing Up Heading into Playoffs
Well, it just so happens that the Brewers have taken their proverbial foot off the gas pedal of late. With a large lead in the NL Central, this team has posted just an 85 wRC+ in the last two weeks and has started getting impatient at the plate. Milwaukee is walking in 8% of plate appearances, ranking 18th in baseball during that time, and sitting 21st in contact rate.
The pitching has really been lacking as well. Milwaukee's bullpen sits dead last over the last two weeks with a 5.94 FIP, and their dominant rotation has looked all too vulnerable. One guy who's been off is the normally lights-out Freddy Peralta, who now has a 3.91 ERA after the All-Star break.
Though the strikeout tally continues to grow for Peralta, his issues with command have been more glaring over the last two months. He walked two and allowed three hits over two innings of four-run ball in his last outing, and has only gone one start without issuing two free passes since July.
While he hasn't allowed many home runs at all over the course of the season — and of late — Peralta is just allowing too much traffic on the bases right now. He's also struggled mightily against righties, and Philadelphia has a lineup loaded with them.
Phillies-Brewers Pick
This matchup should favor the Phillies, who have been the better offensive team lately and probably have more to offer in the pitching department. While this team has had its issues in the bullpen, Milwaukee's has been a disaster lately and should be in the game for quite a bit given Peralta rarely goes deep in games and also has been a mess himself lately.
Betting on Gibson has been a tricky thing to do in the second half, but he's been good more times than not and enters with better form than Peralta.
With Milwaukee getting impatient at the plate, he should be able to limit walks and therefore the damage long enough for the Phillies' bats to keep going.
Pick: Phillies ML (+140)
