Phillies vs Cubs Odds & Prediction | Tuesday Betting Preview
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -120 |
The Phillies continue to pace MLB, sitting atop the standings with a 55-29 record and a league-best 121 run differential. The Cubs, on the other hand, have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams. They are 39-46 and sit at the bottom of the NL Central. Only two teams in the National League have a worse record than Chicago, which have lost seven of its last 10 games.
Despite looking like the best team in baseball all season, Philadelphia is an underdog (+105 on the moneyline) on Tuesday night as it visits Wrigley Field. So, is there value on the Phillies at plus money?
Let's take a look at MLB odds and make a Phillies vs Cubs prediction.
Philadelphia Phillies
Michael Mercado will get his first career start Tuesday after making his MLB debut June 24 out of the bullpen. He tossed a 1-2-3 eighth inning, striking out the first batter he faced.
Over 14 outings and 10 starts in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the 25-year-old posted a 1.71 ERA with 44 strikeouts. Mercado throws a ton of strikes and has a fastball that averages 97 mph.
On the season, Philadelphia has been a top-five offense. They are fourth in scoring, fourth in wOBA and fifth in home runs. The problem is, they are currently without J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
With three of their best hitters out of the lineup, they really need Trea Turner and Alec Bohm to carry the team, as well as Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott to step up.
Chicago Cubs
It has been a difficult few years for Hayden Wesneski in Chicago. He got a chance to be part of the rotation out of Spring Training last season but struggled and was moved to the bullpen. He finished the year with a 4.63 ERA in 34 appearances.
The Cubs decided to option Wesneski to Triple-A Iowa to begin the season before recalling him after a few weeks to join the bullpen once again. He has gotten a few opportunities to make spot starts throughout the season and will make his fifth start of the year Tuesday.
Overall, in his 21 appearances, he has a 3.60 ERA but a 4.81 xERA. Wesneski does not do anything all that well and ranks in the bottom half of the league in most statistical categories. Most concerning is his 10.3% barrel rate, leading to a 1.60 HR/9 rate.
A big reason for the Cubs' struggles has been their lack of offensive production. They rank in the bottom 10 in wOBA and wRC+ this season. They have dealt with injuries throughout their lineup, but Michael Busch is the only player with a wRC+ over 123.
Phillies vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
I’m not expecting either of these starting pitchers to go long in Tuesday’s matchup. Mercado will be making his first career start, and even in the minors he only reached five innings in a start four times.
He had success in Triple-A, as he was converted to a starting pitcher and looked good in one inning during his MLB debut. If Mercado runs into any trouble, he has the league’s best bullpen with a day off and fully rested behind him.
Phillies relievers have the best K-BB% this season and the best xFIP in the league over the last month. Chicago ranks 24th over that time. When these two starters come out, Philadelphia has a big advantage.
Wesneski has pitched more than four innings just twice all season and not since the first week of May. He has allowed allowed a ton of hard contact and has allowed too many walks and home runs, a bad combination for any pitcher but especially against this offense.
Even without three of their top bats, the Phillies still have plenty of talent on offense. Turner has done his part since returning from injury and Castellanos has been terrific over the last two weeks.
Since Harper and Schwarber hit the injured list, the Phillies still rank ninth in scoring and seventh in wOBA. They still have the better offense and will have a significant advantage once the bullpens take over.
Back Philadelphia as the underdog in Chicago.
Pick: Phillies ML (+110 via DraftKings | Bet to -108)
