Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-136 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +138 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -166 |
After returning two big bats — Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber — to the lineup on Tuesday in what was a commanding win over the Dodgers, the Phillies will take aim at their second series win in three tries against Gavin Stone on Wednesday.
Taking the ball for Philly will be another upstart arm in Cristopher Sanchez, who's looking to rebound from the worst start of his season in Chicago last week. Can the ground-baller quiet a Dodgers team that has shown some signs of life at the plate over the last week, or will it be Stone who gets the better of this one against a suddenly-competent Phillies lineup?
Find my Dodgers vs Phillies prediction and picks for Wednesday, July 10, below.
Philadelphia Phillies
Sanchez had dazzled all season long up until his most recent outing in Chicago, where he allowed seven earned runs on seven hits over four frames. The hits weren't all that surprising, given he's pitched to a .267 Expected Batting Average on account of his heavy 60.2% ground-ball rate, and while he allowed a home run, it was just the second he's surrendered all season.
The main problem was the walks, which were an issue for Sanchez to begin the year and were something he worked to overcome in his first two tastes of big-league action in 2021 and 2022. He issued three free passes to a patient Cubs team and will now draw the most patient bunch over the past few seasons in the Dodgers.
Still, the Phillies rank ninth in Outs Above Average in the infield and have remained a strong unit in July despite the loss of Harper at first base. Now, Harper's back, and it would seem Sanchez has a good chance to once again pitch better than his expected numbers behind some solid gloves.
Offensively, it's hard to present any tangible evidence that the Phillies are back to the elite level they showed a month ago given we've only seen them hit with Harper and Schwarber in just last night's game — one which was against a struggling pitcher in Bobby Miller. Still, they put up 10 runs and should reasonably be expected to hit better than they have over the last 10 or so days.
Los Angeles Dodgers
One thing I'm interested in here is the fact that the Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball at hitting ground-ball pitchers. They rank third in baseball with an .810 OPS in this split, a number that is considerably stronger than their .724 OPS versus fly-ball arms.
Interestingly enough, they're drawing more walks in this split — and while you expect more hits against contact guys, you don't normally see the drastic jump in slugging and walks.
We also have to note here that, unlike in years' past, the Dodgers are atop the league in wRC+ to left-handed pitchers with a spicy .192 Isolated Power (ISO). They've also posted a .195 ISO over the past week of play, even if they're hitting just .225, and continue to walk at a high 12.9% clip despite a few more strikeouts creeping in.
Stone, like Sanchez, is coming off a tough outing. He allowed four earned runs on seven hits in his last go around against Arizona to mark his second-worst start of the year, and that also came along with three walks and a home run.
Stone has been slightly worse in terms of limiting walks, and with a lower ground-ball rate than his counterpart, his expected numbers have been average-to-below average.
Phillies vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these young pitchers have been excellent in their own right this year, and I wouldn't count on their most recent starts being the start of a downward trajectory as the season wears on. With that being said, I do think both offenses are incredibly dangerous in this one.
The Dodgers have mashed lefties and ground-ball types, and now draw a favorable park upgrade in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park. Sanchez has been expert at suppressing power, but he's still allowed a large sum of contact this year — most of which has resulted in hits — and this is a Dodgers team that has still done a great job when the ball's come back into play around some declining strikeout numbers.
Mix in Sanchez's occasional issues with walks that reared their ugly head last week, and I think an incredibly disciplined team at the dish will have success.
Stone owns similarly middling expected stats and pitches to more fly balls than Sanchez, so with the Phillies hitting the ball much better with their big boppers back I think the conditions for offense here are great.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
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