The Phillies roll out right-handed rookie Tyler Phillips, while right-hander Bryan Woo takes the mound for the Mariners this Friday at T-Mobile Park.
Let's take a look at a few elements in this game and cook up a same-game parlay for Phillies vs Mariners on Friday, August 2.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Phillies vs Mariners Parlay: MLB SGP Picks (Friday, August 2)
- Tyler Phillips Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
- Bryan Woo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
- Under 7.5 (-105)
Parlay Odds: +465 (DraftKings)
Phillips has been tremendous this season for Philadelphia. Although it is a small sample size, the rookie hurler is 3-0 through four appearances on the mound with a commanding 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.
He's surrendered four or fewer hits in three of those four outings.
The right-hander's underlying metrics are equally dominant as Phillips — if he officially qualified — would rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against Seattle, a team that ranks in the bottom-five of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Not a single member of the Mariners has previously faced Phillips, so it will likely take a few rotations through the batting order to attempt to figure him out, which few teams have successfully done.
Woo is certainly not a strikeout-heavy pitcher, but he ranks in the top half of the league in chase rate and is capable of lasting long enough in this contest to accumulate at least five strikeouts. He's been fantastic this season, posting a 4-1 record with a stellar 2.35 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through 11 starts.
Like Phillips, Woo's analytics are dominant as he ranks in the 77th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. So, can he propel his excellent pitching to rack up five strikeouts on Friday evening?
I believe he can, especially considering that Philadelphia possesses a 22% strikeout rate this season. Looking at Friday's projected starting lineup, six of the Phillies' nine hitters possess a strikeout rate north of 21%.
If we are backing both starting pitchers to put together a quality performance, then a highly correlated outcome would be for the total to stay under 7.5 runs. Both starting pitchers rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, chase rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, both bullpens also rank in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP. Yes, Philadelphia boasts one of the best lineups in baseball.
However, that is offset by Seattle, who possess one of the worst lineups in baseball. It also won't help either lineup that not a single batter in this game has hit against either of the starting pitchers prior to Friday.
