Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -110 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +155 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -110 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -188 |
The first installment of this four-game NL East series gets underway Monday evening with the second-place Miami Marlins hosting the third-place Philadelphia Phillies.
These two clubs squared off earlier this month, with Miami winning two of the three games. Will the Marlins take care of business once again, or can the Phillies strike first?
Here's a look at the odds and my Phillies vs. Marlins betting pick and prediction.
Philadelphia Phillies
Right-hander Taijuan Walker is slated to take the mound for Philadelphia and should be a good fade candidate in this matchup. Through 21 starts this season, Walker possesses a 4.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also nothing to write home about. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 49th percentile or lower in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA and xBA.
Specifically, we're going to fade Walker in the strikeout department. This year, he ranks in the 34th percentile in K% and 17th percentile in Whiff%.
Currently, you can find Walker's strikeout prop at 4.5, a number he has fallen short of in two of his past three starts. These underwhelming strikeout numbers are likely to continue against Miami.
Miami Marlins
It has been a solid campaign for the Fish, who enter this series in second place with a 57-49 record. While the Marlins do not necessarily hit for a ton of power, they possess a scrappy lineup that does not struggle to put the bat on the ball or get on base.
This season, Miami ranks in the top half of the league in hits per game, BA and OBP. The Marlins are also good at avoiding the strikeout.
When facing right-handed pitching this year, they rank ninth in K%. It helps having guys like Yuli Gurriel, Luis Arraez, Jean Segura and Jon Berti, all of whom possess a K% south of 19% this season.
Opposing starting pitchers have collected four or fewer strikeouts in four of the past six games against Miami.
Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Pick
This avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue in this matchup against Walker. In 137 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this Marlins lineup possesses a mere 19.7 K% and 20.2 Whiff%.
Through 11 career appearances on the mound against Miami, Walker possesses a 3.48 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. While he has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in only three of those outings, we should expect a weaker performance in that department in his first start against the Marlins this season.
Pick: Taijuan Walker Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150 or Better) |
