Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | -135 |
| Marlins Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Miami Marlins look to avoid the home sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday night.
The Marlins have been in a free fall since the All-Star break and turn to Pablo Lopez tonight. Unfortunately, Lopez has had struggles of his own over the past few months.
On the other side, Noah Syndergaard looks to continue his quietly solid return to the mound as he makes his 23rd start of the season for a Phillies team currently in the second NL wild-card position and looking to solidify its place in the playoff picture.
Phillies' Offense Can Thump
The Phillies have done well to turn their season around after parting ways with manager Joe Girardi. A huge part of that turnaround was the influx of young talent.
While the individual batting averages may not jump off the page, the Phillies have managed to be one of the more reliable offenses in the league this season, even without stars like Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos for extended periods of time.
Over the past two weeks, the Phillies have posted a 105 wRC+ on the road against RHP, good for 15th in MLB. Although they don't walk a ton as a team, they still slug enough to make consistent dents in the scoreboard to keep them in the better half of the league offensively.
Although Syndergaard's ERA does not look particularly impressive on the road this season — particularly as a member of the Phillies — his 2.94 road FIP over two road starts as a Phil indicate he is due for positive regression.
Lopez Struggling For Marlins
The Marlins' season has turned out to be a disaster in almost every respect. Their offense has suffered key injuries and their pitching has really struggled as well.
No pitcher has had a more disappointing season than Lopez. At one point, Lopez seemed to be firmly entrenched it the Cy Young Award running, but has completely collapsed since the All-Star break.
In the second half, Lopez has posted a 6.52 ERA and a 4.02 FIP while his usually reliable home numbers have slipped as well. He still does carry an overall 3.71 FIP and 3.95 xFIP at home this season, but those predictive stats have not translated into wins for bettors when he has taken the mound.
One thing that has been reliable about the Marlins as of late is their offense is bad. They are near the bottom at home in terms of wRC+ against RHP over the past two weeks and they are one of the worst overall units as well.
Phillies-Marlins Pick
The Phillies have numerous advantages in tonight's matchup, including in the bullpen, and they're rightful favorites.
While, Lopez looked great early this season, he's been a shell of himself for the last several months and there's no reason to believe he's going to turn it around against a scary Phillies lineup. On the other side, Syndergaard may have his flaws, but is worth backing against a poor Marlins offense.
The Phillies moneyline is around -135 on most books at the moment and that should be the play to -140.
Pick: Phillies ML -135
