It’s Game 1 of the NLDS in Philadelphia. Citizens Bank Park will be rocking for the matchup between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
The New York Mets were down to their final two outs Thursday evening as Pete Alonso shocked the baseball world with a three-run home run off of Brewers closer Devin Williams to take the lead in the ninth. The Mets have been a relentless team all season, and their magical ride continues Saturday.
As for the Phillies, they had a dominant 2024 season, clinching the NL East and earning the No. 2 seed in the National League. Zack Wheeler will be on the mound for the Phillies and Kodai Senga for the Mets. Senga is coming off an injury-plagued regular season, as he could only make one start in July before getting injured again. Senga will be limited, and his first start is back, so I expect David Peterson to enter the game once he exits.
The Phillies are -185 on the moneyline, and the total is 7.5. Here are my Phillies vs. Mets parlay picks for Game 1.
John Feltman's Phillies vs Mets MLB Picks & Parlay for Game 1
- Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165)
- Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
- New York Mets +0.5 F5 (+106)
Parlay Odds: +837 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
The last time I wrote up an SGP for a Mets vs Phillies game, I targeted the same prop at the same price point. Despite Wheeler's dominance in recent seasons, some of the Mets hitters have done well against him.
Nimmo was around the same price about two weeks ago in the regular-season matchup and did not perform well against Wheeler. However, he came through with a late-inning home run to cash the prop.
Brandon Nimmo has awoken from his second-half slumber and has been hitting the baseball exceptionally well lately. Despite his lack of success against Wheeler last time, I will again depend on him here.
Nimmo is 13-for-44 against Wheeler's lifetime, including five extra-base hits. The price is far too reasonable to pass up again, and much is working in our favor with the matchup and his recent success lately.
The Mets have been successful against Wheeler in the past and only sport a 19% K-rate against him in his lifetime. However, Wheeler has been dominant in September and is entering the postseason on a roll.
In September, Wheeler struck out 41 hitters in 32 IP and finished the regular season with 224 Ks. In his last start against the Mets, Wheeler struck out eight.
The Mets rank in the middle of the pack in strikeouts per game on offense, and the line seems short, given he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance against Washington. But, given that it is Game 1 of the series, he should have a ton of leash to pitch deep in the ballgame.
The Mets struck out roughly eight times per game in the series against the Brewers, and as long as Wheeler pitches deep into the game, I expect him to eclipse his strikeout total.
The Mets are 12-3 when Wheeler opposes them, and the good numbers against him lifetime are no fluke. The Miracle Mets continue to pull off improbable wins in dramatic fashion, yet the betting public does not respect them.
As of Saturday morning, only 15% of the bets are on the Mets moneyline at +154, and I will happily go against the grain. Granted, I want to target the Mets in the F5 innings solely because of their success against Wheeler in the past.
Kodai Senga has excellent numbers against the top of the Phillies lineup, as he has not allowed a hit against Kyle Schwarber or Trea Turner. If Senga can get through two solid innings, that should give them a massive edge in the early portion of the game.
The Mets bullpen is probably still recovering from their wild week, so I have much more faith in them grabbing an early lead or being tied through five innings.
It's also worth noting the Phillies last played six days ago, which could correlate to some early rust from the offense. It might take them a couple of times through the batting order to get going.
