Phillies vs Orioles MLB Parlay: Saturday SGP Picks
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan O’Hearn
It’s game two of the best series of the weekend — the Baltimore Orioles (45-24) hosting the National League-leading Philadelphia Phillies (47-22). The Orioles hope to salvage a possible series win, but they’ll need to secure a win on Saturday.
Can the Orioles get it done? Well, I think so, as that’s one of my three Phillies vs Orioles parlay legs, which also include prop picks for Ryan O'Hearn and Garrett Stubbs.
Let's dive into my Phillies vs Orioles same-game parlay for Saturday, June 15.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Phillies vs Orioles MLB Parlay: Saturday SGP Picks
- Ryan O’Hearn – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Garrett Stubbs – Under 0.5 hits (-115)
- Orioles ML (-172)
Parlay Odds: +525 (FanDuel)
When you clicked on this SGP article, I’m sure you figured I’d include an Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson play, but I’m looking at a different Orioles masher. Let’s roll with Ryan O’Hearn over 1.5 total bases.
The 30-year-old first baseman has proven his breakout 2023 season was a sign of things to come. In 2024, O’Hearn has an OPS over .800 with a 131 wRC+. He’ll get pitches to hit in the middle of the lineup, as pitchers remain cautious against Henderson and Rutschman.
O’Hearn is a strict platoon hitter, who rarely touches the field against lefties. Thankfully, O’Hearn faces a fortuitous matchup in Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, who is no stranger to allowing home runs — or extra bases hits. Walker has surrendered eight home runs in 47 innings this year. That number bodes well for O’Hearn cashing his total bases prop.
The Phillies now have a major void behind the plate and in the middle of the lineup with J.T. Realmuto suffering a knee injury. His replacement is Garrett Stubbs, who went from playing maybe once a week to being pressed into regular action in a split with Rafael Marchan.
Since Marchan started yesterday, it seems like Stubbs will get the nod for Saturday’s game. I'm targeting this play because the Phillies will likely pinch hit for Stubbs if the game is within two or three runs — limiting his chance for a hit.
My thought process here is pretty simple. Stubbs has never proven to be productive MLB hitter during his career. There’s a reason the Phillies only play them when it’s time for Realmuto to get a day off — hitting .183 this year, and .203 last year, albeit in limited playing. You can get Stubbs under 0.5 hits at -110.
It’s hard to not love the Orioles in this matchup. Not only do the Orioles have one of the most electrifying offenses in baseball, but the pitching matchup weighs in their favor.
On the lineup front, the Orioles offense holds an impressive 117 wRC+, buoyed by AL MVP candidate Henderson’s 172 mark. Then factor in Rutschman, O'Hearn, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle all posting wRC+’s above 130, then it becomes clear it could be a long night for a 5.50 ERA pitcher like Taijuan Walker.
Walker is a ticking time bomb, and it's only a matter of time till he forces the Phillies' hand to make a move. He pitched well in London last Sunday though, striking out six Mets batters in 5.1 innings, registering his best start to date.
I think it’s more of the Mets approach than anything of substance, as all six strikeouts came looking, and Walker’s poor stuff means his command must be pinpoint. Otherwise, his low 90’s fastballs will get belted deep into the Camden Yards stands.
Walker’s Statcast page is akin to the cold mountains in Alaska. He’s in the bottom 1st percentile in barrel rate, 6th percentile in hard hit rate and 3rd percent in whiff rate.
The Orioles handing the ball to Grayson Rodriguez gives them a clear advantage in the pitching department. Rodriguez is pretty dominant if he’s throwing strikes, which hasn’t been easy for him — walking 22 batters in 67 innings, 16 of which in the past 36 innings.
While Rodriguez may not live up to his Cy Young billing like Orioles fans hoped for, he’s a very reliable middle of the rotation starter. He owns a 3.27 ERA with a 3.32 FIP, so a low 3.00 ERA is about where you can expect Rodriguez to sit.
I love the Orioles ML as the final leg of the same game parlay at -172. I’m a bit surprised it’s not closer to -200, given the pitching advantage and the Orioles playing at Camden Yards, where 23 of their 45 wins have come.
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