Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Odds
| Phillies Series Price | -115 |
| Padres Series Price | -115 |
Series Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 18
- Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 19
- Game 3: Friday, Oct. 21
- Game 4: Saturday, Oct. 22
- Game 5: Sunday, Oct. 23 (if necessary)
- Game 6: Monday, Oct. 24 (if necessary)
- Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 25 (if necessary)
Philadelphia Phillies
- World Series Odds: +350
- Regular Season Record: 87-75
- Pythagorean Record: 87-75
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 106 (10th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.54 (4th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.98 (19th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
Kyle Schwarber led the league in home runs. Bryce Harper put up another monster season (140 wRC+), although he played mostly through injuries. J.T. Realmuto was, again, one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. Aaron Nola finished second in the NL in fWAR (5.9) and Zack Wheeler finished 11th (4.2). Both pitchers looked like aces at times this year.
Yet the Phillies scraped by, finishing third in the NL East and third in the wild-card race. Their record was largely carried by a 16-3 record against the Nationals. The Phillies went 70-73 with a +12-run differential against everyone else, including 5-14 against the Mets and 8-11 against the Nationals.
The Phillies started the season horrendously, but picked themselves up and built momentum the rest of the way to clinch the franchise’s first postseason berth in 11 years.
Offense
This should be a very scary offense.
The key is Nick Castellanos. This is a guy who has posted a wRC+ above 120 in three of his past four seasons, including a 139 mark last year.
What happened to that guy?
That guy stopped hitting the curve. While his xwOBA on fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches all dropped about the same, his exit velocity dropped significantly more on the latter two.
That has led to a massive drop in his overall production.
However, Castellanos might be gearing up just in time for a postseason run. He’s slashed .310/.346/.465 with an .811 OPS since August 1st. He’s beginning to hit for average again and has smacked five dingers in the 34 games since.
If Castellanos becomes the guy we expected him to be at the beginning of the season, that gives the Phillies six plus-hitters. The top half of the lineup consists of …
- Bryce Harper (140 OPS+)
- Kyle Schwarber (130 OPS+)
- J.T. Realmuto (129 OPS+)
- Rhys Hoskins (123 OPS+)
The lineup is a scary on and is likely as productive and powerful as any lineup in baseball.
Also, look out for the youngster, Bryson Stott. The rookie had a slow start, but has excellent bat-to-ball skills and has hit .300 since August. He has yet to flash the power, but on-base skill is never a bad thing in a postseason series.
Rotation
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are as good of a one-two punch as Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.
That’s a hot take, probably too hot of a take. However, it suggests just how high I am on these two.
Nola is one of the best pitchers in the game. Only Miami’s Sandy Alcantara had more starts of seven or more innings pitched and two or fewer runs allowed than Nola, who had 11. He’s a real workhorse who may have gotten a little unlucky (3.25 ERA, 2.74 xERA).
Wheeler didn’t put together the same outing he did last year, but putting up an ERA under 2.85 over 150 innings is very solid.
Wheeler led the league in innings last season. Nola finished second in innings pitched this year. These two can pitch seven-to-nine innings of near-shutout ball on any given night.
However, depth is a major issue. The back-half of the rotation will consist of Ranger Suarez, Kyle Gibson and Bailey Falter.
Suarez took a huge step back this season. Gibson hasn’t been the same pitcher since leaving Texas. Falter is just 25 and working his way into the rotation.
Bullpen
The Phillies did finish fourth in the National League in reliever fWAR this season, but I’m not excited to back the Phillies at the end of the game.
The Phillies' reliever ERA this season was 4.24, which finished 23rd among all MLB teams. The Phillies reliever xFIP was slightly better, but not by much (3.97). I wouldn’t expect much positive regression.
They picked up Corey Knebel from the Dodgers and slid him into the closer role, where he picked up 12 saves. But he was hurt in early August and shouldn’t be returning. Brad Hand was another offseason pickup, but he’s been hurt and I can tell you Phillies fans are not excited for his return.
The key to this bullpen will be the duo of Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez, who combined for 2.6 fWAR this season.
Jose Alvarado is a menace. He posted a 38% strikeout rate and a 56% ground-ball rate this season. His 2.53 xERA, 1.91 FIP and 2.16 xFIP show he’s due for plenty of positive regression and his 3.18 ERA was driven by a .340 BABIP.
Dominguez has a monster fastball. It travels 98 mph on average and ranks above the 75th percentile in spin rate. But he gets hit hard often (46.2% hard-hit rate, 4th percentile) and needs to avoid barrels to be effective. –Tanner McGrath
San Diego Padres
- World Series Odds: +350
- Regular Season Record: 89-73
- Pythagorean Record: 86-76
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 102 (13th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.87 (13th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.84 (12th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
It’s been a strange ride for this version of the Padres. It’s been a mix of elation and devastation for the fanbase essentially since Manny Machado signed.
San Diego put together a solid collection of talent and fought its way to the NLDS in 2020. The Padres then doubled down, putting together a monstrous roster in 2021 only to implode in the second half and miss the postseason altogether.
In 2022, the Padres…
- Got a MVP-worthy season for Machado.
- Got nothing from Fernando Tatis Jr. due to an injury and then a drug-related suspension.
- Got a career year from replacement shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who finished second on the team in bWAR (4.9).
- Got Cy Young-contending seasons from Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.
- Got a disastrous first half of the season from Blake Snell (5.22 ERA) followed by a dominant second half (2.19 ERA).
- Made the splashiest deadline moves of the century, including dealing for Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader.
- Won nine of their final 16 games when the NL wild-card opponents were weak.
- Finished 5-14 (.263) against the Dodgers, but 82-58 against everyone else (.585).
- Made the postseason in a full 162-game season for the first time since 2006, despite finishing 23 games back in their own division.
Talking about how the Padres got here is like discussing Gone Girl at a book club — there are so many twists and turns. Plus, the story isn’t even over yet.
The Padres beat the Mets in Game 3 of their NL Wild Card Round, taking the series as underdogs to advance to the NLDS, where they subsequently dispatched with the division rival and 111-win Dodgers in four games.
Offense
The Padres bats begin with Machado, who led the NL in fWAR (7.2) and only Paul Goldschmidt had a higher wRC+ (151). He posted a career-high wOBA and sweet spot rate while posting a 50% hard hit rate.
Manny Machado should be NL MVP.
Same fWAR as Paul Goldschmidt (7.0). Second most valuable hitter on the Padres has been Jake Cronenworth (3.7).
Second most valuable hitter on the Cardinals has been… Paul Goldschmidt (behind Arenado at 7.1).
Padres are nowhere without Manny.
— Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) September 25, 2022
Excluding Soto (more on him in a second), nobody really hit the ball hard. Jorge Alfaro managed a solid barrel rate, but didn’t slug well. Jake Cronenworth’s batted ball stats took a massive hit as he finished below the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The whole offense finished bottom-10 in SLG (.382), ISO (.141) and home runs (151).
Brandon Drury and Bell should help the power deficiency. Soto can slam the ball, but he adds more to the Padres' greatest strength: plate discipline.
The Padres rarely chase. They had the second-lowest swinging strike rate in MLB (10%) and the fifth-highest contact rate (78.1%). They finished with the sixth highest walk rate (9.3%) and the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (21.3%).
Put it all together and the Padres had a slightly-above-average offense this season (102 wRC+). But the deadline additions have the potential to add much-needed power to this disciplined offense and turn San Diego’s lineup deadly.
Rotation
San Diego’s pitching staff kept the Padres afloat during this rollercoaster of a season. The rotation finished sixth in the NL in fWAR, with Musgrove and Darvish carrying the team as the duo posted a combined 3.06 ERA over 369 2/3 innings.
The best story of the year is Snell.
Blake Snell before and after July 1st
Before: 36 IP, 5.60 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 2.00 K/BB
After: 49 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 3.90 K/BB
— David📈 (@DavidCBets) August 24, 2022
Snell started throwing his slider more as the season went on and it led to massive improvements in his fastball (.418 xwOBA allowed in June, .248 xwOBA allowed in September) and a big increase in strikeouts (20.8 K% in June, 35.1 K% in September).
The question marks will come with Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger.
You must hope Manaea’s 5.15 ERA has been fueled by his low 67.1% strand rate and he’ll regress toward his 4.14 xERA and 4.01 xFIP as the postseason progresses. But he posted the lowest ground-ball rate (38.1%) and the highest walk rate (7.5%) of his career.
It feels like Clevinger is still working his way back from injury. His velocity is down about two ticks and his strikeouts are at a career low. The stats aren’t pretty, with an xERA and xFIP both north of 4.65.
Bullpen
The Padres, surprisingly, finished fifth in MLB in reliever fWAR this season. But they dealt their closer Taylor Rogers – who converted 28 of 35 save opportunities in San Diego with a 1.3 fWAR – to Milwaukee for Hader.
Hader turned around and became a complete dud with the Padres. He has a 7.63 ERA in 15 1/3 innings with the Padres.
Luis Garcia has been the best player in the bullpen. He largely received the eighth inning and put together a 3.15 ERA while forcing a 53.7% ground-ball rate in 60 innings.
The good news is both Garcia and Hader are due for regression. Garcia has an xERA of 2.68. Hader has an xFIP of 2.89. If the tides start to turn, this could be one of the better back-end bullpens in the National League.
There’s plenty of depth too, with Steven Wilson, Tim Hill, and Robert Suarez all posting ERAs under 3.00. Nick Martinez and Craig Stammen will be effective as well. –Tanner McGrath
