Phillies vs Pirates Odds & Predictions | Friday Betting Preview
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola (Phillies)
Phillies vs Pirates Odds & Predictions | Friday Betting Preview
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-175 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+145 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -120 |
The Philadelphia Phillies kick off the second half of the MLB season with a three-game set in Pittsburgh on Friday night against the Pirates PNC Park.
The Pirates have been playing solid baseball over the last couple of weeks and are currently riding a four-game winning streak.
It’ll be Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies and Martin Perez for the Pirates. Phillies vs Pirates odds for Friday have the the Phillies as -175 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o /-115u).
Here's my Phillies vs Pirates prediction, including MLB odds and picks for Friday, July 19.
Philadelphia Phillies
Nola has been a staple of consistency in the Phils’ rotation for a number of years, and he continues to be a top-of-the-rotation arm in 2024. Nola’s strikeout numbers are slightly down, but they're respectable enough for that not to be a concern.
Nola has a 3.38 ERA, so although the strikeout numbers have dipped, the amount of hits and walks he's allowed have dropped. The tradeoff is more than fine for Nola, who's notoriously known for having a few clunker starts throughout a season.
Tonight, he faces a Pirates team that he’s done well against in the past. The Pirates are 20-100 lifetime against him, with a 30% K-Rate.
And on the flip side, the Phils draw a juicy matchup against Perez.
Perez hasn’t done well against this group of Phillies hitters. Lifetime, they're batting .317 with eight extra-base hits over 82 at-bats.
All signs point to the Phillies having an edge in the early portion of the game.
Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s a tough matchup for the Pirates, but the market is suggesting they have a fighting chance at home. They have a clear disadvantage on the mound and offensively.
Perez’s numbers are ugly, and it doesn’t help that he has a bad matchup tonight.
Perez has a 5.15 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He's one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, and it’s incredible that he actually has a worse xERA at 5.79.
There’s not much more to say except that the Pirates are hoping he can eat enough innings to keep them in the game late.
The Pirates have a tough matchup offensively, but the good news is that Nola is prone to getting hit hard on occasion. It’s a plus matchup for mashers Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, who hit the ball extremely hard against righties.
Phillies vs. Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
I’m going to target the full-game over here. The Pirates have a bottom-five bullpen in all of baseball, and Perez is primed to get beat up by a talented Phillies offense.
I’m hesitant to back the Phillies solely because of the sharp money coming in on the Pirates, and it’s a bit odd that the Phillies aren't favored by a larger margin.
I expect the Phillies to contribute to the majority of the total, but don’t be surprised to see Nola tagged for a few runs, too.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
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