Phillies vs Red Sox Odds, Pick | MLB Over/Under Prediction
(Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images) Pictured: Zack Wheeler.
Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds, Pick
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -158 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +134 |
Kutter Crawford has been a consistent force in the Boston Red Sox starting rotation. He has done a great job limiting hard contact this year, like he did in 2023. He also pitches much deeper into games than he did before.
His opponent on Tuesday will be NL Cy Young Award candidate Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Runs should be pretty scarce with how strong both pitching staffs have been. Let's dive into MLB odds and make a Phillies vs Red Sox pick.
Wheeler owns a 2.23 ERA and 2.77 xERA — those are both elite. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 78th percentile. His ground-ball rate is about average, and the same can be said about his walk rate. His strikeout rate is over 28%, so that will benefit him and the Phillies defense no matter what team Wheeler faces.
The Phillies have not been elite against righties in the last month, with a 96 wRC+, 9.5% walk rate and 18.1% strikeout rate. That said, they don't strike out much and have seven active hitters over a .320 xwOBA.
However, Crawford will prevent the Phillies from hitting the ball hard, and since they usually excel in that regard, he can cut into what would otherwise be an edge.
The Phillies have a 3.20 xFIP, 6.7% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate in relief. Like Wheeler's numbers, those numbers are elite. Only two Philadelphia relievers are above a 4.00 xFIP, so any reliever after Wheeler should keep the runs to a minimum.
Crawford has a 3.51 ERA and 3.66 xERA this season. He walks less than 8% of batters and strikes out about 23% of them.
His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 76th percentile, while his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 78th percentile. He does not pitch too hard and primarily throws four-seamers and cutters. His massive improvement has been pitching deep into games — he has thrown at least six innings in five of his last seven starts.
The Red Sox have been better against righties in the last month than the Phillies, posting a 104 wRC+, 7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate. They have three active bats above a .400 xwOBA, but the next highest is only .302 in that same span.
This does not bode well outside of the top of the batting order, seeing that the Red Sox are facing one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Wheeler’s ability to limit hard contact will also cut into any edge from Rafael Devers and other red-hot Sox bats. Keep in mind, Devers sustained a small knee injury over the weekend, so we will see how quickly he rebounds.
The Red Sox relief staff has also been great in the last month. Boston has a 3.38 bullpen xFIP with a 6.6% walk rate and strikeout rate of almost 26%. The Red Sox only have three arms over a 4.00 xFIP. Once Crawford exits, he should be able to hand the ball to a reliable arm.
Phillies vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two starting pitchers should easily contend with lineups that have not been their best against right-handers in the last month. Wheeler is elite and Crawford is above average. Both bullpens have been tremendous and should pick up the few innings they are tasked with after the starters exit.
Take the Under in this one from 8.5 to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8.5 (Bet to 7.5)
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