Phillies vs. Reds MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Ranger Suárez in National League Duel (Wednesday, August 17)

Phillies vs. Reds Odds

Ranger Suárez and the Phillies take on Nick Lodolo and the Reds in a matinee finale of this three-game set in Cincinnati.

Suárez has been reliable for the Phils this season, with a 3.54 ERA against a 3.64 xERA.

Lodolo was the No. 2 prospect for the Reds coming into the season. He has hit some bumps in the early going —  with a 4.72 ERA — but his 4.13 xERA tells a greater story: he is unlucky. Still, he ranks in the top half of the league in Average Exit Velocity, and the same can be said about Suárez.

The issue here is the Reds cannot hit lefties anymore after the trades of Tyler Naquin, Tommy Pham and Brandon Drury, as well as the injuries to Aramis Garcia, Mike Moustakas and Tyler Stephenson.

The edge in this game is to play the recent success from Suárez. Cincy has a team wRC+ off of lefties in August of only 75. On the season, it is 95, but this includes the performances of all of the aforementioned players who are no longer on the active roster.

Take the under for the Reds’ team total. Suárez should hold them in check for at least five innings and toss the game to the Philly bullpen.

Phillies' Suárez to Shine?

Suárez does not necessarily dazzle on the bump — he just gets the job done. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in both walk rate and strikeout rate. He does hold opponents to a 56.1% ground-ball rate, though.

This should shine against a team like the Reds, who usually hit the ball in the air. Suárez will essentially negate the only positive aspect of the Reds' offense against lefties.

Amongst active Reds, only Dominic Solano and Kyle Farmer boast a .340+ xwOBA. Outside of Alejo Lopez, the numbers drop significantly for the rest of the batting order. This is yet another reason why Suárez should have a successful outing — he will get the bottom half of the order out easily.

The Phillies’ bullpen has Corey Knebel on the injured list, but the rest of the group is healthy. Sam Coonrod has not pitched this season, but otherwise, Brad Hand is the only Philly reliever above a 4.00 xFIP. They should mow down the bottom half of the Cincinnati order.

Reds' Lodolo in for Long Day?

Lodolo has reasonable expected statistics. He has not yet put it fully together, though. Yes, he limits hard contact, but he walks over 10% of hitters he faces. He has a 28.7% strikeout rate, but the Phillies only strike out 21.6% of the time against left-handers this season.

The Phillies will limit all the advantages he has. They may not necessarily club the ball, but the Phils will find a route to push across a few runs.

Bryce Harper is on the injured list for Philly, so this removes a massive bat in the middle of its order.

The issue for Lodolo is nearly every hitter in the Phillies’ lineup has a .300+ xwOBA. Some may be better than others, but this says that every batter can piece together a strong plate appearance, which will further drive up Lodolo’s pitch count. This will likely lead to an early exit.

The Cincy bullpen has been plagued by injuries this season, but it has five arms below a 4.00 xFIP in the last month of baseball. This means the Reds have serviceable relievers and should be able to at least mitigate the Philly damage late in the game.

Phillies-Reds Pick

Overall, the under for the Reds' team total is the best play in this game, especially with how well the Philly bullpen has performed lately. The same can be said about Suárez.

For Cincy, expect Lodolo to issue some walks and struggle against the entirety of the Philly lineup.

Take the Reds under from 4 (-130), and play it to 3.5 (-125).

Pick: Cincinnati Reds u4 (-130) | play to 3.5 (-125)