Phillies vs Reds Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +143 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -170 |
The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds kick off a four-game set on Monday evening at Great American Ballpark with both clubs playing great baseball as of late.
The Phillies have won 6 straight, including 8 out of their last 10. Meanwhile, the Reds have started to figure things out themselves, sweeping the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend. Both of these offenses had high expectations entering the season, and their slow starts have quickly diminished.
It is a terrific pitching matchup between LHP Ranger Suarez and RHP Hunter Greene, so something's gotta give with these bats.
Let's break down Phillies vs Reds odds, which have both teams listed at -110 on the moneyline with an over/under of 8.5, and uncover the best betting pick.
Editor's Note: This MLB betting preview was published before Bryce Harper was placed on the paternity list on Monday. He will reportedly return on Thursday.
Philadelphia Phillies
It is amazing what one week of baseball can change for a ball club, as the Phillies have quickly moved past their cold stretch at the start of the season. They completely dismantled the White Sox over the weekend, and now put themselves in a position to compete for the NL East title all Summer long.
They draw an intriguing matchup against Greene on Monday night and most of the offense has had success against him in the past. The current Phils are 10-27 against Greene, including Trea Turner who's a robust 5-for-9 against him with a HR.
However, Greene is another year older and he has limited hard contact to begin the season. It may seem like a smash spot for the Phils' offense, but Greene is sporting a ridiculous 14K/9 ratio early on.
The big question of the evening is whether or not Suarez can continue his early season dominance. Long story short, it's clear he has turned a corner as a big-league pitcher, and his success thus far is no fluke.
Suarez is sporting a ridiculous 62% GB rate, alongside a 9/1 K-BB ratio. He has done a great job of generating missed bats, with an impressive 29 CSW%.
The Reds lineup has been performing well as of late, but they are still struggling to make contact. They are in the bottom-5 of the MLB in strikeouts per game.
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz continues to strike out a bunch, but when he makes contacts he has been sensational. The young superstar has easily been the most exciting player in baseball to begin the season and is a big reason the Reds are playing much better as of late.
Tonight, the Reds have a tall task against Suarez, especially given they have struggled against him in the past. As a team, they are 3-20 lifetime with 1 HR.
The big key for the Reds tonight does not surround their offense, it is all on the arm of Hunter Greene. Greene has been dominant to begin the season, but he is still having control issues that have shortened a couple of his starts.
Besides the control issues, Greene is doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact and missing a lot of barriers. Through four starts, Greene's Hard Contact and medium contact rates are down from last season.
His soft contact rate has also increased, and it is definitely encouraging after he was knocked around a bit last season. It is a small sample size, but Greene has certainly pitched better than his current ERA suggests.
It is tough to have confidence in the Reds bats in a tough matchup, especially since they are striking out at a high clip. Both starting pitchers have strong paths to successful starts.
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Phillies vs. Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
I really like the first five under in this matchup. Both Greene and Suarez have the ability to shut down each offense and there is a good reason why I would rather the under in the first five instead of the full game.
Both the Phils and Reds rank in the bottom-5 in bullpen ERA to begin the year, and Great American Ball Park is typically a hitters paradise. Since Suarez and Greene miss enough bats and cause soft contact, I do not think that applies to them.
Things could get dicey if Greene racks up a high pitch count, but I have enough confidence in him that he should come out with guns blazing.
Pick: Under 5 F5 -120 (Play to 4.5 +100)
