Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +145 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -175 |
The Phillies avoided the sweep in Pittsburgh and maintained their lead atop the MLB standings with an incredible 63-36 record. Philadelphia has looked like the best team in the league all year and will offer a good benchmark matchup for the Twins on Monday night at Target Field.
Minnesota has played streaky baseball throughout the first half of the season. But since June 10, the Twins are 21-12, which is the fourth-best record in MLB over that stretch. While they remain five games behind Cleveland in the division, they hold an AL wild-card spot.
The Phillies are set up to have their three best pitchers on the mound for this series, starting with Ranger Suarez for the series opener. Where does the betting value lie in the Phillies-Twinsseries opener?
Check out my Phillies vs Twins prediction for Monday, July 22, below.
Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez has gone from middle reliever to back-of-the-rotation starter to Cy Young candidate for the Phillies. The All-Star pitcher is 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA in 19 starts.
His 3.19 xERA is not far off his current performance. But he is coming off three rough performances in a row. Hopefully, the all-star break was enough for Suarez to regain his form after his hot start.
Suarez is not an elite strikeout guy, but his sinker and curveball combo help him keep the ball on the ground and limit the damage. He has lasted at least six innings in 13 of his 19 starts.
Philadelphia’s lineup has withstood injuries to Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and JT Realmuto, seemingly not missing a beat. The Phillies offense ranks fourth in the league in scoring and third in wOBA.
75% of the Phillies' infield was named to the All-Star team, and this team had depth throughout its lineup. Four players have a wRC+ of at least 130. Even missing time, Harper ranks eighth in baseball in fWAR.
Minnesota Twins
Bailey Ober is not great, but also not bad. He is a perfectly fine pitcher — solid and above-average with a 4.14 ERA and 3.63 xERA.
While Ober has only had two scoreless outings this season, he has only blown up just once. He's good at limiting hard contact while doing everything else at an above-average level.
His fastball is holding him back. It's been a plus pitch for him in the past, but his heater has a negative run value this year, allowing a .307 average and .410 wOBA. He has used his fastball 38.9% this season, nearly 10% lower than prior years. The decrease makes sense because all his secondary pitchers have been plus.
Minnesota can't keep Royce Lewis on the field, as he is back on the injured list. Jose Miranda is also dealing with an injury, which is two big blows for this Twins lineup. However, Minnesota still ranks fourth among MLB lineups in wRC+, and the Twins boast the top wOBA since the start of June.
Even without Lewis, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and All-Star Willi Castro are finally healthy and posting great years. Buxton is hitting .403 with a 1.319 OPS over the last month.
Phillies vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
As good as Suarez has been this season, he has allowed 15 earned runs across his past three starts. His hard-hit rate is starting to increase and he issued seven free passes during the three-start stretch.
He’ll have a difficult matchup against a Minnesota lineup that crushes left-handing pitching. The Twins rank third in the league in wRC+ and wOBA against southpaws. Castro, Correa, Buxton, and Carlos Santana all have an OPS above .900 against lefties.
Ober is an above-average pitcher, but this elite Phillies lineup is finally back to full strength. Ober is a fly-ball pitcher, allowing too many barrels, and Philadelphia should be able to jump on his fastball here.
Even with two terrific bullpens, there is enough pop in these lineups.
Pick: Over 8 (-115, Caesars)
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