Pirates vs Astros Odds & Predictions
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +122 |
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+115 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -145 |
Paul Skenes will look to bounce back after suffering his first career loss on Tuesday in St. Louis. He now holds a record of 6-1 with an ERA of just 1.93 in 74 2/3 IP. The Pirates have played to a record of 6-4 over the last 10, and remain loosely in the NL wild-card mix as a result.
This should prove to be a big week in Houston, as the Astros are a team to watch ahead of Tuesday's MLB trade deadline, currently sitting tied atop the AL West with the busy Mariners.
Jake Bloss may not remain in the Astros' rotation post-deadline once Justin Verlander returns from the IL, but he will get another chance to leave a more positive impression on Monday after struggling to a 6.94 ERA in his initial three appearances this season.
Editor's Note: Jake Bloss was scratched from this start and reportedly traded to the Blue Jays for left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Skenes was brilliant once again in his last start, as he allowed just two earned runs over eight and a third but suffered a tough luck loss as his side scratched across just one run. The Pirates offense has remained in pretty shaky form over the last month, as they have hit to a 24th ranked wRC+ of 98, and hold an OPS of .709.
As with the rest of the season the Pirates have been particularly bad in splits against right-handed pitching recently, too. Over the last month they have hit to a wRC+ of 93 against righties. They also hold a 24th ranked wRC+ of only 88 on the road this season, and rank 22nd with an xSLG of .396.
Houston's seasoned lineup will do its best to game plan for Skenes, as at this point facing off against the young phenom certainly draws an added level of attention for opposing batters. Easier said than done though, and Skenes has remained very tough to touch of late.
In his last start Skenes generated chases 42% of the time versus St. Louis, with a first pitch strike rate of 83%. He has at least six strikeouts in each of the last nine starts, and his 34% strikeout rate ranks only below Garrett Crochet among qualified starters this season. Skenes has pitched to an xFIP of just 2.27 this season, and 2.35 over his last five starts.
Houston Astros
It will be strength on strength in this matchup as Skenes takes on an Astros lineup which has once again been potent versus right-handed pitching. They rank seventh in MLB this season with a wRC+ of 110 against righties, and hold an OPS of .741. They have struck-out only 19.3% of the time, and hold an eighth ranked xSLG of .425.
The Astros continue to feature a wealth of noteworthy pitchers on the IL, and as a result Jake Bloss gets another chance to prove his worth. Bloss was selected 98 picks after Skenes in the 2023 draft, and has been effective in the minor leagues this year pitching to a 1.64 ERA and o.78 WHIP.
Bloss holds a 104 Location+ rating and 105 Pitching+ in his MLB outings thus far this season.
He will be backed
Pirates vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
For a lot of bettors it's probably tough to imagine fading Skenes in any fashion, as if you have been blindly him in any market throughout his initial 12 starts it's surely worked out well. This is arguably his toughest test since his matchup on June 5th in Los Angeles when he allowed three earned runs in just five innings.
It's been a tiny margin of error in for Skenes in most outings, as the Pirates have made a habit of providing him zero run support. The chances that Skenes once again doesn't get much run support in this matchup could be slightly greater than oddsmakers are expecting, as Bloss has more upside than he has shown in a tiny sample of big league innings.
It is giving a ton of credit to Skenes to make him this large of a favorite versus a hot Astros team for a game in Houston. At this point there looks to be more value taking a shot fading Skenes in a tough matchup.
