Pirates vs. Phillies Predictions
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8 -115o / -105u | +160 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8 -115o / -105u | -192 |
It’s time for a rubber match between two in-state rivals, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies benefited from Aroldis Chapman melting down in the seventh inning Saturday and eventually walked it off in the ninth inning. In the series opener, the Pirates took an early lead and never let the Phillies back into the game.
What will game three bring? The Pirates have largely controlled the series, but could go back to Pittsburgh with a 1-2 road trip with a Sunday loss. From a betting perspective, the Phillies are -195 moneyline favorites with a game total of over/under 8.
Let's break this one down in our Pirates vs. Phillies predictions and pick.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 hasn’t treated Pirates ace Mitch Keller kindly, pitching to a 5.29 ERA in 17 innings with 17 punchouts. That said, Keller’s 3.43 FIP and 4.03 xFIP indicate some unlucky results in the first three starts of the year. Keller’s main issue is walks, allowing 3.45 BB/9. He’s walked at least two guys in each of his three starts. While Keller is the Pirates' “ace," he’s the clear second-best pitcher in this matchup.
The Pirates' lineup is pretty average, posting a 101 wRC+. There’s isn’t any real star power in the lineup, and the two biggest names — Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz — haven’t performed to their potential this year. Reynolds is a solidified All-Star level hitter, while Cruz is all potential. Cruz showed off his potential with an opposite field tank against the Phillies on Saturday, which improved his 86 wRC+. The Pirates will need those two to step up in the rubber match.
Edward Olivares and Connor Joe have been the Pirates' two most impactful bats through two weeks. Joe is the more encouraging surprising performer, as he’s known for his ability to hit left-handed pitching but he’s hitting a remarkable .346 against righty pitching.
Another thing to watch is the Pirates' bullpen. I mentioned Chapman pulling a Chapman earlier, but David Bednar has accumulated three blown saves, the same amount as all of last season. We’ll see if Bednar gets back to attacking the zone and gets on track. The bullpen relies on him locking down the final three outs. Beyond Bednar, Chapman, Colin Holderman and Jose Hernandez pitched in the first two games of the series, which could impact their availability for the third game.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies' offense has woefully underperformed through the first two weeks, which makes their current 8-7 record look not too shabby. Eight of the nine Phillies starters have an OPS below .800. The best hitter on the roster right now is Brandon Marsh, who has a .924 OPS, ahead of Bryce Harper’s .764 OPS. Slumping is nothing new for teams or players, but the issue is when nearly your entire roster is slumping simultaneously. Then the slumping turns into players pressing, which leads to even longer slumps.
Kyle Schwarber tallied three hits including a towering homer to center field in Saturday’s win over the Pirates, so perhaps he’s finding his stride. As the lead-off hitter, Schwarber sets the tone for the lineup. If he gets going, it could create a positive effect for everyone in the Phillies' lineup.
Additionally, Nick Castellanos is notorious for his streaky hitting. He’s on the bad side of the streaky play right now, hitting just .182 with a .444 OPS in 55 AB’s. The good news? Castellanos went 2-for-5 in Saturday’s win, including the game-winning single. Castellanos getting going changes the trajectory of this struggling lineup.
If you know anything about Philly sports fans, you know they don’t practice patience well. So sitting 25th in baseball with a 78 wRC+ has the Philly faithful a bit restless.
Zack Wheeler has turned into one of MLB’s best and most consistent pitchers since coming to Philly in 2020. The 30-year-old righty is sporting a dominant 1.89 ERA over 19 innings of work, but his xFIP sits at 2.76. The expected numbers always seem to level as the season rolls on, so expect Wheeler’s numbers to dip. Still, if Wheeler posts a 2.75-3 ERA at season’s end, that’s good enough to win the Cy Young.
Pirates vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think the Phillies win, but laying -195 juice isn’t worth it. If you’re so inclined to add the Phillies ML to a parlay, or just straight bet it despite the juice, then I’m fully on board. I think we’ll see an old-fashioned pitchers' duel, and a classic Wheeler dealing session.
I’m rolling with the Under 8 runs. Wheeler could limit the Pirates' offense to zero runs, and Keller should get going eventually, especially against this underperforming Phillies lineup. I could see a 3-2 final or something in that range.
Pick: Under 8
