The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, April 11. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Pirates vs Reds odds have the Reds as -166 moneyline favorites and Pirates as +140 road underdogs. The game total is 8 (-118o / -102u). The Reds are +124 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Pirates are -148 to cover the spread (+1.5).
Below, you can find my Pirates vs Reds prediction for Friday night.
My Pirates vs Reds Prediction
- Pirates vs Reds picks: Reds Moneyline (-150) | Play to -160
My Pirates vs Reds best bet is the Reds ML (-150). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Reds Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 8 -118o / -102u | +140 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 8 -118o / -102u | -166 |
Pirates vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
Kenny Ducey’s Pirates vs Reds Preview
Pirates Betting Preview: Falter Needs to Improve
The Pirates may have one of the worst offenses in baseball right now, but their pitching has helped them win three of their last four games. It'll be Bailey Falter's turn through the rotation, which always raises many questions.
Falter owned an innocent enough 4.43 ERA and 4.81 xERA as a back-end starter a season ago. Still, his numbers must improve as he continues transitioning into a contact-first pitcher. The lefty watched his hard-hit rate reach a career high at 41.3% last year — around five points worse than average — and his .267 xBA and .450 xSLG were well worse than average as well.
Falter induced plenty of fly balls to go along with those figures, and that's what makes it something of a marvel that he was able to escape with a reasonable xERA. Limiting walks certainly helps bring that number down, and so far, he's done that to an extreme degree in 2025, with just one in 10 innings to go along with nine strikeouts.
Pittsburgh will hope that Falter can navigate this one a bit easier than his last two starts, where he's allowed a combined nine runs on 14 hits — including two home runs. His 3.44 xERA thus far paints a rather glowing picture of him, but hopefully, I've one enough to cast a shadow over it.
Reds Betting Preview: Singer's New Style Helping Reds
Brady Singer was a pretty cool story for the Kansas City Royals a year ago, finally seeming to deliver on his potential with a solid 3.71 ERA across a career-high 179 2/3 innings. The former first-round pick found success rolling up ground balls in front of one of the league's best defenses, helping him pitch well beneath his 4.65 xERA. It wasn't luck; it was simply a well-executed strategy.
Well, now Singer is in Cincinnati, where he inherited a defense ranked 23rd in Outs Above Average a season ago. So, what has he done? He's become a wildly different pitcher—at least through two starts—pitching to fly balls and racking up a tasty 30.6% strikeout rate, which is over eight points better than his 2024 mark.
The irony is that the Reds have actually started off the season ranked top-five in OAA, and Singer theoretically should be avoiding the gopher balls inside his hitter-friendly home stadium. If you really want irony, he struggled in his most recent start on the road in Milwaukee and spun seven scoreless innings with just one hit against him in his home debut.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
As we approach this one, the Pirates and Reds sit in the bottom two of the league in wRC+, and each team has begun with a 25% strikeout rate. The Pirates have been buoyed by walks but have failed to impact the ball as much as Cincinnati, which boasts an Isolated Power that is 20 points better.
