We have a duel between two of the future stud aces in the sport as Paul Skenes takes the ball for the Pirates (72-83) and Hunter Greene toes the rubber for the Reds (76-80). So, let's dive into this NL Central matchup with a Pirates vs Reds prediction.
The Pirates enter this game as narrow -125 road favorites with the over/under set 8 runs.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction
- Pirates-Reds picks: Pirates ML -125 up to -140
My Pirates-Reds best bet is on the Reds moneyline, where I see value at -125. The best line is available at BetRivers, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Reds Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -110o / -110u | +105 |
Pirates vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) | Stat | RHP Hunter Greene (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | W-L | 9-4 |
| 3.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.7 |
| 2.07/2.63 | ERA /xERA | 2.83/2.97 |
| 2.57/2.64 | FIP / xFIP | 3.41/4.17 |
| 0.98 | WHIP | 1.02 |
| 4.9% | K-BB% | 3.1% |
| 51.2% | GB% | 34.7% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 124 |
| 103 | Location+ | 99 |
Sean Paul’s Pirates vs Reds Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Greene Returns in Limited Capacity
If you’re a fan of the Reds, you can breathe a sigh of relief with Greene returning from a potentially scary-looking elbow injury. He missed over a month, but at least it’s not Tommy John surgery. It sounds like the Reds plan on keeping Greene somewhat limited to preserve the star. I doubt Greene goes more than four innings in this start since he didn’t throw a rehab start.
Either way, Greene will provide a nice boost for the Reds here. He enters this outing with a career-best 2.82 ERA and a strong 3.42 FIP while maintaining a strong 10.17 K/9. It certainly feels as if Greene has developed into a polished pitcher rather than a thrower since he selflessly sacrificed a few ticks on his K/9 to help drop his HR/9 from 1.52 to 0.69.
I am a bit concerned about where the Reds go for the remainder of outs — which is probably 15-18 once Greene exits. Their bullpen has leaked oil all year long, ranking 17th in baseball with a 4.04 ERA this year while sitting 24th in September with a 4.96 ERA.
The Reds offense hasn’t been special in general this year, but it’s fallen off the metaphorical cliff in September. They rank 21st in MLB with an 84 wRC+ this month. One of the main causes for the Reds' offensive hardships is their extreme swing-and-miss woes, punching out 26.6% of the time.
What is the one good thing about the Reds offense? A big game from Elly De La Cruz typically means a strong game from Cincinnati's offense. The Reds scored seven runs on Saturday thanks to De La Cruz hitting a homer and grabbing two additional hits in the win. The flip side is the Reds' reliance on De La Cruz's offensive production means the offense tends to be a no-show if EDLC isn't causing havoc with his dynamic speed or hitting ability.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Carried by the Mound
While Paul Skenes’s storybook rookie season is nearing its finale, he’ll have one final road outing against a divisional foe. Although Skenes likely won’t win NL ROY, he’s put forth an amazing year with a 2.07 ERA and 2.57 FIP in 121 innings.
Skenes' stats don’t just pop from a basic numbers standpoint but also from an analytical perspective. The rookie standout ranks in the 95th percentile in xERA, 92nd in xBA, 95th in K-Rate, and 75th in average exit velocity.
He's already faced the Reds twice in his rookie year, holding them to one run in 12 innings. Don't fret, though, Cincinnati fans, most teams can't hit Skenes.
Despite things trending upward in Pittsburgh, it’s not always roses. While pitching remains a strength, the bats lack consistency. They failed to score 3+ runs in five of the past six games, which led to losing five out of six games against the Cardinals and Reds.
The offensive struggles aren’t a new thing, as the Pirates rank 27th in MLB with a disastrous 76 wRC+ this month with a 24% K rate. Only three Pirates hitters boast a wRC+ above 100 in that span — Yasmani Grandal, Andrew McCutchen, and Jared Triolo.
To put it nicely, the Pirates don't have a ton of talent. The best pure hitter is Bryan Reynolds, but even he isn't hitting right now, so the lineup and Reynolds's struggles coincide.
I have very little confidence in the Pirates offense, but it might take just one or two runs to win in a Skenes start.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
Despite all my reservations, I still love the Pirates here. Skenes is on the hill, which is always good, but the Pirates being narrow -125 favorites seems a bit low here.
I know Greene, in a normal start, likely makes this a fair line. Greene coming off an extended layoff where he won't go very deep into the game should be accounted for, though. It doesn't feel like it is, though. So, that's why I'll back Pittsburgh here.
Pick: Pirates ML -125
Moneyline
I'm on the Pirates moneyline here. The money is heavily on the Reds side, despite the overall bets leaning in the Pirates' direction, so pretty big money is in the Reds' direction. I'll fade the money here with the unknown of how long Greene will pitch. If I knew Greene is a sure thing to go five or six innings, then I might lean in the Reds' direction, but I doubt that'll be the case.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on the run line here. My angle on picking the Pirates is figuring out a way to win despite having one of the worst offenses in the sport with very little offensive upside. I think there's a decent likelihood the Pirates win a close one, so the run line is a no-go for me.
Over/Under
I went pretty in-depth on how rough the two offenses have played lately. I think the under is a pretty solid look here at eight runs. I'm fading the public bettors here, as 86% of the handle is on the over. It just isn't something I can justify, though. We might be looking at a four or five-run game here.
Pirates vs Reds Betting Trends
- 57% of the bets are on the Pirates moneyline and 99% of the money is on the Reds moneyline
- 56% of the bets and 79% of the money is on the Pirates run line
- 86% of the bets and 74% of the money is on the over
Pirates Betting Trends
- The Pirates have lost four of their past five games
- The Pirates are 4-6 against the spread in their past ten games
- The Pirates have gone under in six of their past ten games
- The Pirates are 34-42 on the road this year
RedsBetting Trends
- The Reds are 3-2 in their past five games
- The Reds have gone over the total in three of their past five
- The Reds are 6-4 on the run line in their past ten games
- The Reds are 39-40 at home this year.
