Luis Gil could end up being a key piece of the New York Yankees’ pitching staff in October. He has an impressive strikeout rate and although walks have been an issue, he can limit hard contact and misses plenty of bats.
His opponent will be rookie phenom, Paul Skenes, and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The young righty has had one of the most impressive rookie seasons for a starting pitcher since Stephen Strasburg.
Since both starters are so solid and each lineup has racked up strikeouts, my Pirates vs. Yankees prediction is a play on the under.
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction
- Pirates vs Yankees pick: Under 7.5 (Play to 7)
My Pirates vs. Yankees best bet is on the under, where I see value at 7.5. The best line is available at Caesars, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Yankees Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+109 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -202 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-129 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +166 |
Pirates vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3 | W-L | 15-6 |
| 4.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 1.99/2.56 | ERA /xERA | 3.27/3.73 |
| 2.48/2.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.87/4.32 |
| 0.96 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 26.6% | K-BB% | 14.7% |
| 51.2% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 103 | Location+ | 94 |
D.J. James’ Pirates vs Yankees Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Trust Skenes to Dominate
Skenes has a 1.99 ERA and a 2.56 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88 mph and he also boasts an above average Hard-Hit Rate. Additionally, his ground-ball rate is elite, his strikeout rate is 32.9% and his walk rate is under 7%. He has an incredible arsenal with swing-and-miss stuff, which should throw a wrench in any plans the Yankees offense has for Saturday.
The Pirates have struggled at the dish against righties over the past month, holding an 82 wRC+, a 7.9% walk rate and a 24% strikeout rate. They do have six hitters with an xwOBA above .330 with those parameters in place, but there is a steady drop after those hitters. Considering how often Gil can generate strikeouts, the Pirates might be in trouble.
In relief, the Pirates have had issues. Over the past month, they hold a 4.87 xFIP, a strikeout rate below 20% and a walk rate above 11%. That said, they still have four active relievers with an xFIP under 4.00, which should be enough behind Skenes, who can throw deep into games.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Offense May Struggle
Gil has a 3.27 ERA and a 3.73 xERA. He has an Average Exit Velocity a touch above 89 mph, but his Hard-Hit Rate is also above average. He doesn't keep the ball on the ground and his walk rate is north of 12%. However, a 27.1% strikeout rate with a well-above-average whiff rate will play against the Pirates.
Now, the Yankees have a 101 wRC+, a 9.5% walk rate and a 24.4% strikeout rate over the past month. They have four bats with a xwOBA above .330 and a few just under that threshold.
Still, that won't produce the results they want against Skenes, one of the best pitchers in baseball.
In relief, the Yankees have a 3.32 xFIP, a 8.7% walk rate and a 28% strikeout rate in the past month. They have several options to go to if Gil struggles. This has been one of baseball's best bullpens lately, which should be an automatic boost in postseason play.
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Skenes is electric and is going to put the cherry on top of an already impressive rookie season. He has been everything the Pirates have hoped for and will continue that against the Yankees.
Gil clearly has some issues, but has dynamic stuff and should take down a below average Pirates lineup. Both bullpens have enough to keep the scoring in check, so look for the under to be in play.
Scoring will be at a premium, so bet this from 7.5 to 7.
Pick: Under 7.5 | Play to 7
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the Pirates vs. Yankees moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not betting the Pirates vs. Yankees run line.
Over/Under
I'm betting the Pirates vs. Yankees over/under. My best bet for this game is on the under.
Pirates vs Yankees Weather
