Marlins vs Red Sox Odds
| Marlins | -130 |
| Red Sox | +110 |
| Total | 9.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Date | Wednesday, June 28 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Boston Red Sox have the second game of a three-game series with the Miami Marlins on Wednesday night.
The Marlins walloped the Red Sox in the first game of the series, 10-1. The Marlins got after Red Sox pitcher Garrett Whitlock for six earned runs over 4.2 innings.
Tonight, the Marlins will look to Braxton Garrett while the Red Sox will throw Kaleb Ort.
Rafael Devers will be looking to get his bat going against Garrett and the Marlins.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Devers player prop at BetMGM for Wednesday, expecting Devers to find his groove against the Marlins.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair-value line for every MLB player prop on the market.
Rafael Devers Player Prop Prediction, Projection
Devers is batting just .240 on the season. That's a far cry from the .295 mark he posted last season.
Despite his drop in batting average, he still has 18 home runs and 60 RBI. Devers has the fourth most RBI in all of baseball.
The model indicates Devers' RBI total is too low. BetMGM has set his strikeout total Wednesday at 0.5, with +150 to the over and -200 to the under. That's the best price on the under in the market.
Devers is averaging 0.79 RBI per game. A +150 line implies that Devers has a 40% of recording an RBI tonight. Furthermore, he hasn't had an RBI in the last three games, so it can also be assumed he's due to have an RBI.
The model predicts Devers' RBI at 0.7, good enough for a 10% betting edge on the over.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit size for each individual bet.
Pick: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBI (+150)
