The Houston Astros play host to the Texas Rangers in Game 2 of the ALCS Monday afternoon at Minute Maid Park, looking to avoid a 2-0 deficit.
The Stros will send Framber Valdez to the hill to make this attempt, facing off with Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers after Jordan Montgomery and Texas shut out the Astros in Game 1.
Houston may be in trouble, though, as Valdez has looked anything but sharp in recent weeks and faces as tough a lineup as you'll find right now, led by some less-heralded names that may thrive in this exact setting.
Rangers vs Astros Game 2 Props
Framber Valdez Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
+125 at DraftKings
Valdez did not look his best in his 2023 postseason debut eight days ago when he faced the Minnesota Twins. The 5-foot-11 lefty went 4 1/3 innings and allowed five runs (all earned) on seven hits and three walks, while striking out five and allowing one home run.
This is the third straight bleh start from Valdez dating back to the end of the season, as he has allowed 14 runs and 11 walks in his last 13 2/3 innings.
That's an admittedly small sample, but the microscope zooms in a bit when it comes time to determine relevant sample for the postseason, and the walks in particular are notable.
The Rangers had the fifth-best walk rate against lefties this regular season, and they also notably had the second-lowest ground ball rate against southpaws. When Valdez is cooking, he is inducing lots of soft contact ground balls. The Rangers also possess the second-lowest soft contact rate against lefties and are an all-around tough matchup.
It's worth noting that two of Valdez's three starts against the Rangers this season were strong, with one blowup, but there's another factor that is central to this bet.
With the Astros already being down 1-0 in the series, Justin Verlander having given them 6 2/3 innings yesterday, and a day off coming tomorrow, this is the perfect time for Dusty Baker to have a quick trigger with Valdez. We've seen it relentlessly this postseason, as starters really just are glorified long relievers when it comes to modern October baseball.
With Marcus Semien one of the worst matchups for Valdez right at the top of the Rangers' order, Valdez may have to be really cruising to get a third time through this order.
Fifteen is obviously a very key number for pitcher outs, but we've seen time and time again this postseason that managers don't mind pulling their starter in the middle of an inning to limit damage and stay within striking range.
Pick: Framber Valdez Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+125 at DraftKings)
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Mitch Garver Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
-115 at DraftKings
Naturally, if I am skeptical of Valdez against this Rangers lineup, that's where I'll be looking for my player prop bet, as well. And Garver is a great matchup.
The Rangers, as a whole, are excellent against lefties. In addition to the ground-ball and soft-contact rates, they also just straight-up had the fifth-best wRC+ against lefties this season at 115.
Leading the charge for Texas was Mitch Garver and his 170 wRC+ against lefties. This is not new for Garver, as he has absolutely manhandled southpaws his entire career (139 wRC+ for his career, compared to 114 against righties).
Garver draws walks, doesn't strike out, doesn't ground out and doesn't have soft contact against lefties — all great recipes for success against Valdez.
Strangely, Garver did not take a lefty deep this season, but with the potential for success up and down this lineup on Monday, I like targeting his hits + runs + RBI.
I'll also be eyeing his total bases market, as well as his walk market. He led the team with a 22.6 percent walk rate against lefties this season, and we noted Valdez's command issues above.
Pick: Mitch Garver Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 at DraftKings)
