The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros gave us the two most beautiful words in the world Sunday night: Game 7.
Thanks to the sixth straight game in which the road team won in this wonky series, the Battle for the Lone Star State will now add a Game 7 chapter, as Max Scherzer and Cristian Javier will square off with a trip to the World Series on the line.
Scherzer looked rushed back in Game 3, while Playoff Javier has been in form so far this postseason. But the more I dug into this game, the more I liked the Texas side of things.
As such, here are two props that run along that game script.
Rangers vs Astros Game 7 Player Props
Leody Taveras Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
+400 at DraftKings
Leody Taveras Over 0.5 Runs Scored
+150 at FanDuel
For narrative bettors, there's nothing more fun than betting the number nine hitter on the underdog to be the storyline. Well, I am not a narrative bettor, but I do appreciate the irony in finding value on Taveras for Monday night.
Taveras has quietly had an outstanding postseason. The 25-year-old (it's crazy he's still that young) has the sixth-best OBP of any player remaining in the postseason, and his four steals are tied for the lead among all players this postseason.
He has had this success by increasing his walk rate (good news against a pitcher whose walk rate we'll touch on in a bit) and cutting down on his K rate. That's a great combo, and as the number nine hitter, if he gets on base, it means that Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are right there to look to drive him in.
Taveras is also a good matchup against Javier from a pitch portfolio perspective. Against right-handed fastballs and sliders (which make up very nearly 90% of Javier's repertoire), Taveras was third on the team with a .374 xwOBA in 2023, turning him into the equivalent of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from an xwOBA perspective against this pitch mix this season.
The best number on Taveras to score is +150 at FanDuel, which is almost 20 cents off the rest of the market.
However, I like him to steal at +400 at DraftKings even more. Taveras has four steals in 11 postseason games, and Javier ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in terms of stolen bases allowed, per Razzball.
And while noting that Martin Maldonado allowed the fourth-most steals in baseball is a little bit of double counting (given that Javier and Maldonado are obviously tied together in terms of slowing down — or not — the running game), the environment is ripe for a Taveras steal on Monday night.
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Picks: Leody Taveras Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+150 at FanDuel) | Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+400 at DraftKings)
Evan Carter Over 0.5 Walks
-110 at BetMGM
There were a few different ways I debated playing Carter. His number wasn't quite long enough on Yes To Steal a Base and his hits+runs+RBI was just correctly priced, but I see value on his walks prop.
We all know about the batting approach from the rookie, as his 18.2% walk rate ranks fifth among players still playing this postseason. He has drawn a walk in over half of his games this postseason, and Javier has struggled in that regard.
Javier has handed out six walks in just 10 2/3 innings this postseason, a 5.06 BB/9 rate that is highest among the 13 pitchers to toss at least 10 innings. Javier was in the bottom quarter of the league by walk rate during regular season, so this isn't entirely small sample theater.
During the season, only 23 of 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched threw fewer pitches in the strike zone, and against a batter like Carter and his 11.9% swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone (Juan Soto led the league at 20.0% this season, so this number is comical), that's a recipe for a walk.
As a final slight benefit, the Astros' bullpen ranked just above league average by walk rate, and their best arm (Bryan Abreu, who may or may not be suspended for this game) has a 10.8% walk rate that ranks above league reliever average, as well (9.7%).
Pick: Evan Carter Over 0.5 Walks (-110 at BetMGM)
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