Game 3 of the World Series gets underway this evening as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Texas Rangers at Chase Field.
Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Rangers-Diamondbacks tonight.
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Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3.
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Gabriel Moreno Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Max Scherzer takes the mound for Texas in Game 3 and should be a good candidate to back.
The future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer put together yet another strong campaign, going 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He struggled a bit in his two outings against Houston in the ALCS, but that just presents us with a buy-low opportunity for a guy that ranks in the 81st percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and K%.
That brings us to Gabriel Moreno, who has failed to surpass this figure in six of his past nine games. Over that span, Moreno owns a .250 BA, .361 SLG and .686 OPS.
That is not the type of form you want to bring against someone of Scherzer's caliber, especially when you've never hit against him before.
Tommy Pham Less than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some solid correlation, we're also going to fade the guy who hits two spots ahead of Moreno in the batting order: Tommy Pham.
Like Moreno, Pham has failed to surpass this figure in six of his past nine games. Also like Moreno, Pham's OPS sits south of .690 over that stretch.
However, the one difference between these two DBacks hitters is that Pham has faced Scherzer prior to Monday, and his track record is terrible. In his career against the right-hander, Pham is just 3-for-23 with 10 strikeouts.
Pham has produced a fade-worthy .155 xBA, .192 xSLG and .173 xwOBA across those 23 at-bats.
Josh Jung More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
While we are looking to buy low on Scherzer, we should also look to sell high on right-hander Brandon Pfaadt.
The rookie has been tremendous this postseason, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through four starts. With that said, I don't believe this success is sustainable after his 3-9 regular season that resulted in a 5.72 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also poor, ranking in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
If we are looking to back a Texas hitter in this matchup, then Josh Jung is as good as any. In his career against Pfaadt, Jung is 2-for-3 at the dish.
Those two hits? Both homers.
Jung has surpassed this number in seven of his past 13 games, posting a .327 BA, .612 SLG and .971 OPS over that span.
